WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, March 8, 2025; WEATHER HAZARDS And GLOBAL SATELLITE IMAGES

[Larry Cosgrove]

WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)

 

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)

 

Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits

Coastal LA, MS, AL, Florida Panhandle

 

HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)

 

Isolated Locations In 

SE OK....SW AR

(QPF 1 - 2")

Isolated Locations In 

Coastal LA, MS, AL....N FL

(QPF 1 - 3")

Isolated Locations In

Coastal BC, WA

(QPF 1 - 2")

WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL

(potential for Moderate Icing, Snow 2 - 4" or more, and/or temperatures below 10 deg F)

 

Scattered Locations In

N AB....N SK....N MB....N ON....N, C QC

(Intense Cold)

Isolated Locations In

E BC....Far W AB

(Snow; 4 - 12")

Isolated Locations In

N, C MB....N ON....W, C QC

(Snow; In Squalls; 4 - 8")

Isolated Locatiosn In

N, E QC

(Snow; In Squalls; 4 - 12")

GLOBAL WEATHER SUMMARY

(a review of important weather features around the world)

 

IODC

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT

 

It will be a gradual process. But the "Out Of Africa" moisture fetch and persistent upper level lows will depart the Middle East soon.

The reason much of the Levant and Iran has been chilly with frequent rain and snow issues this winter has been due to the constant presence of cold 500MB lows that migrate out of the southern branch over the Mediterranean Sea. That is again the case, and it likely will not be until Wednesday before this latest bringer of miserable weather lifts out into Afghanistan and central Asia. In the next 72 hours, precipitation will continue, but become more convective in nature across Saudi Arabia and Yemen into southern Persia and Pakistan.

Warmth will arrive next weekend, and possibly in a strong fashion across the Tigris/Euphrates system and through Iran. Also watch for unusual heat in India. This may be the start of a brutal spring and summer heat wave through the Indian subcontinent.

 

HIMAWARI 8

METEOBLUE; Kochi University

 

The northward, although fragmented, drift of the Madden-Julian Oscillation may not mean much with respect to weather conditions in Asia and North America. Linkage to the polar westerlies is occasional, but incomplete. The general weather pattern across the Northern Hemisphere is somewhat typical of a weak La Nina episode, which allows for cold pooling above 50 N Latitude and across locations in Central Asia and western North America. Tropical cyclone potential will increase again in the Indian Ocean and Pacific Basin theaters below the Equator. Rainfall potential will be high over Malaysia, Indochina and the Philippines.

Australia has some pockets of convection, but the subcontinent, as is the case with New Zealand, is primarily hot and dry.

 

GOES WEST

NOAA/NESDIS

 

The two storms on the left portion of this image represent profound weather changes in the West and Great Plains over the next two weeks. The system closest to the Pacific shoreline will turn into an intense spring storm, with widespread snow through the Intermountain Region and High Plains. Further east, the Great Plains could see high winds and a quick jump in temperature. The feature closer to the International Dateline represents a profound severe weather and heavy rain threat across the central and eastern portions of the USA and Canada in the 11-15 day period.

 

GOES EAST

NOAA/NESDIS

 

A small storm in the south central and Gulf Coast region will generate strong thunderstorms in those regions before moving offshore of the Carolinas on Monday. The cold pocket associated with the low pressure center may generate hail and p[erhaps even brief snow and sleet in parts of TX and OK. But also note that the larger Arctic air mass remains far to the north and west in Canada and the Intermountain Region.

The ongoing trend for large, deep ITCZ waves continues from west central Africa through the equatorial Atlantic Ocean and on into the central Amazon Basin. This set-up can be construed as favoring an active, early 2025 hurricane season, particularly if heat ridge formation gets underway soon in the Sargasso Sea and across the Sahara Desert. Also, look at the strong frontal structure triggering heavy thunderstorms from northeast Argentina into southern Brazil.

 

METEOSAT

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT

 

This could be a fairly cool, wet pattern for the European subcontinent through the next week or so. The blocking signature over the northern Atlantic Ocean may not last very much longer, as two strong shortwaves will replace the current trough and storm settling into the western edge of Europe. The first low pressure in this sequence  will close off and move through the Italian and Balkan Peninsulas. Unlike previous such disturbances, this feature will lock up over Greece and be absorbed into the new trough complex covering the British Isles and France/Spain by March 18.

I am watching the African ITCZ situation very carefully.  Stronger waves have been noted from the Congo Basin westward into Brazil, and that might mean an early and active start to the "Cape Verde" portion of the Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone season this summer. Most of the southern half of African continues very hot and mostly dry away from coastal South Africa, Malagasy has a diminishing cyclonic circulation, while the Sahara Desert and Sahel are getting hotter and drier