WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, January 17, 2026; WEATHER HAZARDS And GLOBAL WEATHER SUMMARY

[Larry Cosgrove]

WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)

 

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)

 

STRONG WINDS

(Pressure Gradient Derived)

MT....AB....SK....MB

 

HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)

 

Isolated Locations In

FL Panhandle....S GA....Coastal SC

(QPF 1 - 2")

 

WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL

(potential for Moderate Icing, Snow 2 - 4" or more, and/or temperatures below 10 deg F)

 

Isolated Locations In

FL Panhandle....SE AL....C, N GA....W SC....C NC....SE VA....Delmarva Peninsula....NJ

(Snow; Sleet; 2 - 4")

Isolated Locations In

SE Newfoundland

(Snow; Sleet; 3 - 5")

Isolated Locations In

AB....SK

(Snow; In Squalls; 3 - 6")

Scattered Locations In

AB....SK....MB....ON....MI....WI....MN....SD....ND....MT

(Intense Cold)

GLOBAL WEATHER SUMMARY

(a review of important weather features around the world)

 

IODC

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT

 

The connection between the giant cAk vortex in Russia and the incoming shortwave from Turkey and the eastern Mediterranean Sea is troubling as moisture and energy will converge with very cold air across the Levant and Persia.  Severe weather is probable in the near term from Mesopotamia through Iran and then western Pakistan. The very warm temperatures will be replaced by a cold intrusion that may reach the Persian Gulf after the passage of a shortwave and frontal structure. Risks for severe weather will increase, while snow bands may reach into the Zagros Range. Another impulse is expected to push past Anatolia, and bring heavy snow and wind through the Caucasus through Turkmenistan and the Central Asian Republics.

 

HIMAWARI 8

METEOBLUE; Kochi University

 

While the Madden-Julian Oscillation is incoherent (straddling Phases 2 through 7), a gyre is present above New Guinea that may consolidate the convective bands and dra the impulse into the International Dateline.There is only fragmented linkage with the polar westerlies, but perhaps a greater connection to the subtropical jet stream with an embedded storm nearing Baja California. Note the high incidence of tropical cyclone risks about an otherwise scorching hot Australia and New Zealand.

Also note the broad area of bitter cold across the northern half of Eurasia, which should consolidate into a large sub-Aleutian vortex next weekend.

 

GOES WEST

NOAA/NESDIS

 

The storm sequence over the eastern Pacific Basin is buckling as the disturbances are forced to turn northward toward Alaska, in the process building a ridge complex along the western third of North America. At some point these impulses will start to dig, and undercut the ridging, and energy and moisture should move through northern Mexico and along the Gulf Coast (probabl;y in a week or so). The ridge is preventing the very cold values in Canada and the Great Plains from reaching the Desert and Intermountain Regions, which have turned very dry so far this winter.

 

GOES EAST

NOAA/NESDIS

 

There is an immense cAk vortex across Hudson Bay which is sending out parcels of very cold air through the Great Plains into Dixie and the Eastern Seaboard. This motherlode will settle into James Bay and central Ontario by the middle of the new week, and will likely stay in place into early February. This is why the forecasts from the Central through the East of the nation now look quite cold, despite earlier proclamations from official sources of a mild winter. Locally heavy snow will be frequent in squalls across the Great Lakes and Appalachia in the near term and medium range. It is quite likely that southern branch interaction will produce a more significant surface cyclone from Texas and the Deep South along and off of the East Coast in the medium range and/or longer term.

A giant weather curiosity is moving along and across the Amazon Basin. This is an out-of-season ITCZ tropical wave that will continue to organize thunderstorms across the northern half of South America. This is a hot and humid austral summer from much of Brazil through Argentina and Chile, with more isolated diurnal convection below the cross-continental feature.

 

METEOSAT

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT

 

A chilly but not really bitter cold pattern has set up across the European subcontinent, with a southern branch storm track evident from the Iberian Peninsula into Turkey. The more intense Arctic air mass is over much of Russia, with a giant cAk motherlode across Siberia. Keep in mind that snowfall potential will grow in the days ahead, likely maintaining a cold nature for much of Europe.

There are some minor streaks of moisture in northern and central Africa, but much of the continent above the Congo Basin can be classified as mild and dry. High humidity with frequent and heavy diurnal thunderstorm activity is evident from South Africa northward to the Nile headwaters.