WEATHERAmerica WINTER STORM OUTLINE, February 21 - 24, 2026 For The Virginias, Mid-Atlantic, New England And Maritime Provinces

[Larry Cosgrove]

Overview

A diffuse disturbed area in southern Colorado and Kansas will slowly congeal into one storm as it heads toward the southeast on Saturday. With a blocking signature evident in Quebec, low pressure at surface and its 500MB component will become vertically stacked, causing a bombogenesis event (968MB) near Cape Hatteras NC early on Sunday morning. There may be a northwest jump with this feature to off of Ocean City MD later Sunday, caused by the low taking the path of least resistance up along its inverted trough. Recent numerical model runs have a very deep 500MB core, with a shortwave entering closely behind the main low center. All of this implies a slower moving, more intense cold circulation that will eventually parallel the Mid-Atlantic and New England shoreline before coming through Dartmouth NS on Tuesday.

Snowfall Totals

The heaviest cluster of snow will occur either side of the Chesapeake Bay through and just east of the Interstate 95 corridor from Wilmington DE to Houlton ME. Remember to use the "half the amount" rule when looking at some of the heavier numerical model estimates. Example: some totals are above 3 feet. A safer estimate would be 18", with less possible where sleet and freezing drizzle occur. The Virginias could get more accumulation due to slow forward motion and the northwest recurvature and deepening played against orographic lift enhancement.

Mixing Or Changeover

Most of this storm will be primarily snow, This is why the storm totals from the numerical models should be respected. A start or brief mix/change on Sunday could occur most anywhere in the areal coverage, but odds any icing will be relatively minor. Worry about the snow, first and foremost.

High Winds

It boggles the mind that the model guidance for just 24 hours ago had a weak system with dry patches and little wind. Now, there is almost complete agreement on a wide area from Appalachia into New Brunswick of gale force speeds due to a combination of deep pressure gradient and some interaction with higher elevations from North Carolina into the Maritime Provinces. Bottom line: this is a serious storm and will likely shut down travel and alter power delivery. And of course, the strong gusts will intake colder air Monday and Tuesday, creating numbing wind chills through the Northeast.

Duration

Depending on location relative to the "slowing" period of this cyclone, 24 to 48 hours of high winds, heavy snow, and altered tidal flooding must be considered before things calm down for everyone on late Tuesday.

Thundersnow

NAM upward vertical motion charts show convective snows along and 75 miles either side of the storm track. Remember, bolt production in cold air cumulonimbi can increase local accumulation of snow by 3 to 5" The major cities along the Interstate 95 corridor should get a "light show" even in the low visibilities with blowing, sometimes heavy snows. Squalls could also form downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario, but probably only briefly.

Analogs

Considering the convective and 500MB trough-induced enhancements associated with this low pressure area, Snowfall and general weather conditions should fall between the December 25, 1966 and February 17, 2003 winter weather events. I am being careful with the amounts expected but the urbanized locales should see a noteworthy system. I will emphasize that even locations in the mountain areas should see difficult travel and power considerations. This should all come to an end everywhere by Tuesday night.