TODAY'S FUN LINKS: | | Yale Climate Connections - 7 March 2025A new Early Online Release BAMS article reveals that a quirky aspect of the way twisters are measured helps explain why there hasn’t been a top-tier-rated tornado in 12 years. |
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| | Massachusetts Institute of Technology - 5 March 2025 The research is the first to show, with high statistical confidence, that the recovery is due primarily to the reduction of ozone-depleting substances rather than other influences. |
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| | ECMWF’s AI Forecasts Become Operational ECMWF - 25 February 2025 ECMWF took the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS) into operations to run side-by-side with its traditional physics-based Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) to advance numerical weather prediction. |
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| | Stanford University - 13 February 2025Historic rains filled Greater Los Angeles reservoirs and shallow aquifers nearly to capacity in 2023, but drought conditions persisted in deeper aquifers, according to a new analysis of seismic data. |
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WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail; Isolated Tornadoes)
NE TX....LA....N MS....W, C TN....KY....S IN....SW OH
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
Isolated Locations In
WI....IL....IN....KY....SE MO
(QPF 1 - 2")
WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL
(potential for Moderate Icing, Snow 2 - 4" or more, and/or temperatures below 10 deg F)
Isolated Locations In
ON/MN Boundary Waters; Far N WI; Upper MI
(Snow; 3 - 6")
Scattered Locations In
WA....BC....W MT....NW WY....N, C ID
(Snow: Above 4500 Feet; 4 - 24")
Isolated Locations In
ME....NB
(Wet Snow; 3 - 6")
(a review of important weather features around the world)
IODC
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
One more cold upper level low to get through.
By now, many in southwest Asia are sick of the cloudy, chilly days with low elevation rain/thunderstorms and heavy mountain snow. But there is cause for smiles in the Middle East and Iran. The current disturbance with the "Out Of Africa" moisture fetch will start to lift out into Kazakhstan in about three days. Ridging over northern Africa and Yemen will increase and expand northward, introducing very warm, if not hot, air across the Levant and southern Persia. This is a slow process, but once the scenario takes hold, it should last through spring. All forecast guidance has the worst heat in South Asia, which in time will spread westward and link with the Saharan heat ridge.
A hot summer awaits. Again.
HIMAWARI 8
METEOBLUE; Kochi University
The Madden-Julian Oscillation is again best described as incoherent. A major impulse is centered in Phase 3, 4, with a more important disturbed area southeast of Hawaii. Note that the MJO has only a feeble connection to the polar westerlies, but is obviously a major provider of energy from tropical forcing into what may be a major spring storm in the Midwest, Dixie and Eastern Seaboard next weekend. I should also point out that there appears to be a prominent mountain torque event in Tibet which could be a prominent precipitation maker in the Pacific Northwest, in concert with the Gulf of Alaska Low, during Week 3. That system, if it holds up, would favor an impressive warming trend to the right of the Rocky Mountains on and after April 7.
The expansion of tropical air and convective precipitation is taking shape again over eastern Australia into New Zealand. The western and southern portions of the subcontinent are mostly fair, dry, and very warm.
GOES WEST
NOAA/NESDIS
You need not be a synoptic meteorologist to view what may be a very troublesome weather event coming up in the USA in the medium range. A Kelvin wave (related to the MJO), accompanied by a subtropical jet stream and a forming Gulf Of Alaska Low, are likely to combine into a full-latitude trough complex along and west of the Pacific shoreline this week. All of the numerical models have mishandled this feature, showing a rather flat 500MB flow across North America during the 6-10 day period. There will be a great deal of heavy rain and snow in the northwestern states before all is said and done. But I suspect that the area from the Heartland and Upper Midwest through the Corn Belt and lower Great Lakes will see threats for severe weather in the March 29-31 time frame.
GOES EAST
NOAA/NESDIS
There are some areas of colder air in the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast in association with the trough dropping out of Saskatchewan and Manitoba. A small storm will take shape in Missouri and Illinois on Sunday, and that system, with a frontal structure and marginal amounts of instability, may set up scattered areas of strong thunderstorms from Texas into the Ohio Valley. But also look at the growing very warm and dry regime in Mexico, the Southwest and lower High Plains, which will make an imprint in much of the lower 48 states in coming weeks.
As noted previously, there are already ITCZ waves crossing the equatorial Atlantic Ocean. Most of the South American continent is still very warm or hot (and incredibly dry even in usually arid Chile). The only organized thunderstorms are in much of Argentina and southern Brazil.
METEOSAT
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
Colder air is in retreat across Eurasia. There are still some storms that form across the eastern Atlantic Ocean, one of which is targeting western Europe with risks for heavy rain and severe thunderstorms. This feature will slowly migrate to the Danube Valley later in the new week before slowly lifting out and filling as it enters Poland and Russia.
There is enough moisture associated with the European storm complex to bring significant rain and thunder to the Atlas Rang, and later to parts of Libya and Egypt with a cold frontal passage over the next five days. But there is also a Saharan heat ridge taking shape which will warm and dry the Middle East in the longer term. Yet another tropical wave has formed in equatorial Africa, which again favors an early and active start to the 2025 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season. Surprisingly, colder air has overtaken much of South Africa at the start of the austral autumn.
