WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, May 11, 2024

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Larry Cosgrove

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May 11, 2024, 7:47:13 PMMay 11
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TODAY'S FUN LINKS:

A 2-Year-Old Boy Died After the Wind Blew Away a Bounce House Where He Was Playing

Today - 30 April 2024

The tragedy spotlights the dangers of bounce houses in windy weather: Recent research published in BAMS found that wind-related bounce house incidents were responsible for more than two dozen deaths and nearly 500 injuries during the years 2000–21.

 

Venus Has Almost No Water. A New Study May Reveal Why

University of Colorado Boulder - 6 May 2024

The results could help to explain what happens to water in a host of planets across the galaxy.

Coastal Hurricanes Around the World Are Intensifying Faster

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory - 2 May 2024

A new study finds that coastal conditions have changed since 1979, driving nearshore hurricanes around the world to intensify at a quickening pace.

Asian American and Pacific Islander Heritage Month Spotlight: Dr. Tetsuya “Ted” Fujita

The Front Page - 6 May 2024

Nicknamed “Mr. Tornado,” Fujita linked tornado damage with wind speed and in 1971 developed the Fujita scale for rating tornado intensity based on ground and/or aerial damage surveys.

U.S. Had 300 Tornadoes in April, Second-Most on Record

(may require subscription)

The Washington Post - 3 May 2024

The twisters, some intense and deadly, swarmed the central states and formed as far north as Alaska.

Snowfall and Drought: $4.8M Field Campaign Will Improve Forecasts in Western US, Led by U-M

University of Michigan - 6 May 2024

A mountaintop laboratory and a suite of radar instruments will study winter storms from large-scale cloud movement down to individual snowflakes.

Is There a Link between Your Aches and Pains and Changes in the Weather?

WKBW-TV - 1 May 2024

2020 BAMS study with more than 10,000 participants revealed a key weather parameter associated with a prevalence of either high or low pain.

How to Clean Up New Delhi’s Smoggy Air

Paul Scherrer Institut - 25 April 2024

An international study shows for the first time what portions of particulates in the air over northern India are especially harmful to health.

One of America's Most Infamous Tornadoes, the Deadly Oklahoma City F5, Struck 25 Years Ago

Weather Underground - 3 May 2024

This single tornado was responsible for 36 deaths and approximately $1 billion in damage, with 1,800 homes destroyed and another 2,500 homes damaged.

For Microscopic Organisms, Ocean Currents Act as "Expressway" to Deeper Depths, Study Finds

Brown University - 2 May 2024

New research shows how tiny plant-like organisms hitch a ride on ocean currents to reach darker and deeper depths, where they impact carbon cycling and microbial dynamics in the subtropical oceans.

Drought-Stricken Calif. Reservoir Fills for the First Time since 1998

SFGate - 29 April 2024

It’s only the ninth time the reservoir, which holds 254,000 acre-feet of water, has filled since its completion in 1958.

Remote Sensing Technique Captures Details of Hurricane Ian's Aftermath

Florida Atlantic University - 29 April 2024

Researchers have developed a novel technique that provides rapid, high-resolution assessments of detailed damage after a hurricane.

 
WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)
 
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
 
SCATTERED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Tornadoes; Likely MCS or MCV in Texas)
S AR....LA....C, E TX....OK....W, C KS....SW NE....C, E CO

ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
C, E NE....W IA....S MN....W WI
 
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
 
Scattered Locations In
S AR....LA....C, E TX....OK....W, C KS....SW NE....C, E CO
(QPF 1 - 6")

Isolated Locations In
W ON....S MB
(QPF 1 - 2")

Isolated Locations In
NL Newfoundland
(QPF 1 - 2")

Isolated Locations In
C, E NY....N PA....N NJ
(QPF 1 - 2")
 
EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK
(Potential For Temperature To Exceed 95 deg F)
 
Isolated Locations In
Interior CA....AZ....NV....UT....S ID....W WY....W CO....W, S NM....C, S TX....Coastal LA

Isolated Locations In
S FL

GLOBAL WEATHER SUMMARY
(a review of important weather features around the world)
 
IODC
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ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
 
Often a major, long-lasting hot spell precedes the advance of the summer monsoon.

The repeated pattern shown on model forecast imagery is for a stretch of extreme heat (even by regional standards) preceding the formation of a monsoon trough (diffuse 500MB low) over the eastern Arabian Sea. In the same time span (through May 21), a strong shortwave in the polar westerlies moves from Turkey to the Caspian Sea. That track will generate more intense thunderstorms through much of Iraq into northern Iran. But notice that below the best chances for precipitation is searing heat, which at times may bump up to 35 N Latitude. Much of southern Persia and Pakistan, which I expect to be targeted for abundant rainfall this summer from monsoonal disturbances, will undergo afternoon maxima repeatedly above 45 deg C.
 
HIMAWARI 8
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METEOBLUE; Kochi University
 
Waiting on a typhoon?

The Madden-Julian Oscillation has become very chaotic. Convection firing over the equatorial western Pacific Basin must be watched for tropical cyclone development. But so far, there are just pulses of thunderstorms embedded in a linear wave to the northeast Of Papua/New Guinea. 

Note also that the connection to the polar westerlies coming off of Asia is largely broken up. That would mean increased heat ridging in the subtropical zones, which in time will expand eastward and involve Mexico and the southern USA. It appears that the last trough and cold front in the sequence are exiting the coastline of China.

Aside from a thunderstorm group centered on Tazmania, Australia and New Zealand and mostly quite dry and rather warm.
 
GOES WEST
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NOAA/NESDIS
 
The storms cluttering the eastern Pacific Ocean will have a major impact on the lower 48 states, mostly moving in tandem with the subtropical jet stream. The southern branch is slowly ascending, which in time will allow a building heat ridge in Mexico to edge into the southern tier of states (probably in a week or so). But between now and May 21, thunderstorm potential will increase markedly. First across the Intermountain Region, then in Texas and the Great Plains this week. 
 
GOES EAST
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NOAA/NESDIS
 
You can see a southern branch shortwave near the "Four Corners". This feature will track slightly south of east into the Red River Valley, and give rise to an intense thunderstorm grouping (MCS or MCV) which will restart the recent trend of  severe weather and excessive rainfall across the south central states on Mother's Day and into Tuesday. A closed low in the Northeast will keep temperatures down and trigger locally heavy rain and thunder during Sunday.

The brutal display of flooding rain and thunderstorms from northern Argentina into southern Brazil shows no signs of letting up. Colder, but still unstable air with showers and some thunder cover the southern third of the continent. Note that the space from the Caribbean Sea southward to the targeted rain and flood area is generally hot, humid with little convection.
 
METEOSAT
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ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
 
A rather odd blocking configuration with an Omega-frame ridge in Scandinavia will prevent any intense heat in Africa and the Middle East from getting into most of Europe. For now at least. Once concern that I have with two broad, closed 500MB lows either side of the ridge complex, severe weather and flooding rainfall may be recurrent through the end of the month.

The ITCZ is pulsing, with an impressive MCV-like feature moving from Nigeria toward Sierra Leone. Shearing winds are still quite entrenched across the subtropical Atlantic Ocean, so further organization is unlikely. Dominated by the Saharan and Kalahari heat ridges, most of Africa looks hot and dry for the foreseeable future.
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