WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, February 14, 2026; SHORT And MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOKS

[Larry Cosgrove]

SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK

(Through The Next 72 Hours)

 

Texas Storm Puts The Brakes On "Blowtorch" Talk For Midwest, Northeast; West Coast Prepares For A Cold, Moist Monster

NOAA/NESDIS

UQAM Meteocentre (3)

PivotalWeather.Com (3)

ECMWF

College Of DuPage (3)

Tired of the constant cold temperatures, many locations in the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic and New England have been hearing a steady, droning tale of "winter is over", with no more snow and a likely "blowtorch" run of warmer air. Unfortunately, the reality of the situation is that there are many features in North America that lend support to future periods of lower temperatures and potential snow or mixed winter precipitation. The small storm ejecting out of Texas and Oklahoma, more notable for thunderstorm and heavy rain chances in Dixie, may actually play a role in keeping air flow out of Quebec and Ontario (a fragmented ridge segment over Hudson Bay sets up the drainage of cA values).

There may be light/moderate sleet and snow from the Washington DC metro into Connecticut and Rhode Island as the low pressure is held south through the Hampton Roads VA vicinity (and then deepening as it moves below Nova Scotia on Monday). But the main effect of the little disturbance is its keeping the upper flow west/northwest, in linkage with the cold air dome across Canada. Some of the chilled air above the snowpack will slide into the Midwest and Northeast. So much so that the warmer air never escapes the Great Plains, Texas and the Deep South.

The West, which in general has been warmer and drier than normal this winter, will share in the misery felt in Canada. A giant offshore storm near Vancouver Island BC will slide slowly eastward, and drive the cAk air mass down the Pacific shoreline as far south as Baja California. Snow levels will still be fairly high, but likely descend moving through the medium range across the Intermountain Region. I fully expect this giant system to put down massive amounts of snow in the High Sierra and the Cascade Range before drier air arrives around February 24 - 25.

 

MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK

(Four To Ten Days From Now)

 

Watching And Waiting For Massive East Pacific Storm Complex To Make Its Move

METEOBLUE

TrueWx.Com (4)

WeatherBELL (4)

College Of DuPage Weather Laboratory (3)

There is a puzzle complex about what the track and impact of the giant mAk vortex will be once motion begins in the 6; but the mild/warm layer in the central chamber of the U.S. may be compromised by the subtropical jet stream, which could force cold advection more quickly into the lower latitudes in the 6-10 day period. Most of the numerical models put out extremely heavy high-elevation snow in the West, with the promise of a dangerous blizzard across the Prairie Provinces. A breakaway cold intrusion from the motherlode will move through the Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes to the Eastern Seaboard, putting to rest talk of a huge warming trend there. Ultimately, there should be a national shift to colder weather with a winter-type major storm through the southern and eastern tiers of the nation between February 27 - March 2.