WEATHERAmerica Newsletter; EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST, Sunday, February 1, 2026

[Larry Cosgrove]

EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST

(Between Day 11 And Day 15)

 

Brief Mild Breaks Aside, Much Of February Looks Cold Across North America

NOHRSC (2)

CIMSS (2)

TropicalTidbits.Com (Dr. Levi Cowan) (3)

NOAA/PMEL

NOAA/CPC

HPRCC (2)

Environment Canada

WeatherBELL (9)

NOAA/CPC

The prevailing theme for North America for February into the first week of March is "mostly very cold". And while the western third of the lower 48 states again mostly misses the worst of the Arctic air, even the Desert and Intermountain Regions may get a deep southern branch storm that pulls in some of the cAk values. Yes, there is a fair chance that locations in California and Arizona get the same unwanted white surprise that Florida did on Saturday!

From what you can tell on the model guidance, the linked +PNA/-AO/-NAO configuration will be in control, with only a few breaks that occasionally will confine the coldest air to the immediate West Coast and the Northeast. Keep in mind that while some sources will proclaim winter over after a warm-up in the Prairie Provinces, Great Plains and Texas in the 6-10 day range, we will follow the winter pattern of a southern branch storm passing through 30 N Latitude and then careening up the Eastern Seaboard, like the January 31 storm. Connection to a cAk vortex over Ontario and Quebec will summarily wipe out the moderation in the middle and eastern portions of the continent. Chances for snow will increase, and a chance for an ice event could line up from the Lone Star State through Dixie and into the Mid-Atlantic region. This is also a higher heating demand situation for the Midwest, Great Lakes, and the Northeast. Note that Cleveland OH and vicinity had the coldest averages this past month, a scenario that could repeat itself in the last two weeks of February.

In case you were wondering, the seemingly relentless surges of Arctic air will come to an end in early or middle March. The La Nina episode will be on its last legs by then, as we ascend into what I believe will be a weak El Nino by June 1. The subtropical jet stream should lift slowly north, with heavy rain and thunderstorms overtaking the pattern from northern Mexico through the Deep South, and then on into Oklahoma and the Dixie states by St. Patrick's Day. By the way, that rare snow in the Florida Peninsula creates an analog, the January 1977 event where Miami and Ft. Myers witnessed the only snow ever recorded. So when the March forecast is upgraded in two weeks, there may be an altered warmer approach for the eastern states next month. But not now!

 

Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Sunday, February 1, 2026 at 2:20 P.M. CT

Disclaimer: 
The previous statements are my opinions only, and should not be construed as definitive fact. Links provided on this newsletter are not affiliated with WEATHERAmerica and the publisher is not responsible for content posted or associated with those sites.

Copyright 2026 by Larry Cosgrove

All rights reserved.
This publication may not be reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part without the expressed written consent of the author.