TODAY'S FUN LINKS: | | 5 Key Weather Ingredients that Led to Last Week's Texas Floods (may require subscription) Forbes - 11 July 2025 As the tragedy unfolds, important questions are being raised about the lack of a real-time warning system, barriers to disseminating available weather warnings, and why certain infrastructure is located in a known floodplain. |
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| | The Conversation - 11 July 2025Effective flood protection requires extensive preparedness and awareness, but also an understanding of how people receive, interpret, and act on risk information and warnings. |
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| | NASA Website Will Not Provide Previous National Climate Reports (may require subscription) The New York Times - 14 July 2025 The National Climate Assessments, which are mandated by Congress, detail the ways climate change is affecting the country and how communities can respond. In May, AMS announced a partnership with the AGU to publish work intended for the sixth assessment. |
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| | Steering Clear of Turbulence NCAR - 1 July 2025 A new system under development at NCAR offers promise of guiding flights worldwide away from rough air. |
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WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
SCATTERED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
E IA....N, C IL....IN....OH....E KY....WV....VA Panhandle....W NC....E TN
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
PA....NJ....NY....CT....RI....MA....VT....NH....S QC....ME....NB....PEI
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
N KS....C NE....SD....ND....C, E MT....S SK....S AB
Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits
C NM....C CO
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
Scattered Locations In
E IA....N, C IL....IN....OH....E KY....WV....VA Panhandle....W NC....E TN
(QPF 1 - 3")
Isolated Locations In
PA....NJ....NY....CT....RI....MA....VT....NH....S QC....ME....NB....PEI
(QPF 1 - 3")
Isolated Locations In
N KS....C NE....SD....ND....C, E MT....S SK....S AB
(QPF 1 - 2")
Isolated Locations In
N KS....C NE....SD....ND....C, E MT....S SK....S AB
(QPF 1 - 2")
EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK
(Potential For Temperature To Exceed 95 deg F)
Scattered Locations In
CA....S OR....NV....AZ....UT....S ID....S MT....WY....CO....NM....TX....OK....KS....NE....C, S SD....SW MN....IA....MO....AR....LA....MS....AL....FL....GA....TN....KY....C, S IL....C, S IN....S OH
WV....S PA....DE....MD....DC....VA....NC....SC
(a review of important weather features around the world)
IODC
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
We are nearly at the midpoint of the "searing summer courtesy of global warming".
This is small comfort to those living at Ground Zero for worst intensity and coverage of hot air, with multiple locations in the Middle East and Persia reaching 50 deg C or higher, and often with high surface relative humidity. Aside from a few orographic-related thunderstorms in central Iran, there is broad heat ridge coverage from most of northern Africa through Mesopotamia and scorching as far east as the Gobi Desert. And if you think that it is always hot in those places in summertime, consider that records have been, and will be for daily maxima. The monsoon is helping suppress temperatures in India, but readings in Pakistan have so far stayed frightfully high as the emphasis on moisture advection has remained in a northeastward pattern, drawn away by Rossby wave interactions in coastal China and across the Pacific Basin.
I will repeat the mantra that, at least in the case of the Levant, most of Perrsia and Afghanistan, no relief is likely until the second week of September. Heat core presentation at 500MB will often touch or go north of 35 N Latitude. So even coastal towns on the Caspian and Black Seas must suffer through this historic heat ridge complex. As for those of you residing along the Persian Gulf and Sea of Oman, all that I can say is, you have my sympathies.
HIMAWARI 8
METEOBLUE; Kochi University
The Madden-Julian Oscillation is in a Phase 2 reformation, and there are three large Rossby waves moving through the subtropical Pacific Basin. Instead of the Indian monsoonal moisture lurching westward under and into the Arabian/Persian heat ridge complex, the giant impulses (with embedded Tropical Storm Wipha nearing southeastern China) are pulling the higher dewpoint plumes further east. This action accounts for extreme heat across the interior of Asia. There may also be implications further downstream, helping to build a subtropical high across the eastern two-thirds of the USA, while also enhancing the Southwestern monsoon from Mexico into the Desert and Intermountain Regions.
Australia is largely warm and dry, but Antarctic cold fronts are advancing into the southernmost portions of the subcontinent. The greatest impacts of these ImA intrusions will be squally weather and cooler temperatures in Tasmania and New Zealand.
GOES WEST
NOAA/NESDIS
It is possible, even in the middle of a hot summer, for lower latitude cold storms to impact California. Lowered temperatures are enhanced by monsoonal moisture meeting an offshore frontal structure. The ITCZ has a huge impulse which could interact with the trough in the eastern Pacific Ocean, which itself is being steered eastward by a vast Aleutian Low moving toward the Gulf of Alaska. Heat ridging across the West may be pushed into the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley in coming days.
GOES EAST
NOAA/NESDIS
Much of the northern USA and southeastern Canada is under the influence of shortwaves riding the polar jet stream, setting off intense convection (see Ontario into Ohio and Kentucky). But a dual heat ridge formation (Sonoran and Bermudan) will undergo a slow merger, eliminating any extant thunderstorms from the middle of the lower 48 states to the Eastern Seaboard. This vast anticyclone will enable Saharan air and dust to reach the Southeast within 5 to 7 days, along with decreased chances for rainfall. In time, the ITCZ waves will be able to move into the Greater Antilles and Caribbean Sea during the medium range.
Note the stark difference on the satellite image of the ITCZ moving from the Cape Verde vicinity into the Amazon Basin and the Caribbean nations and onward through the equatorial Pacific Basin. It is very warm and dry across the southern 2/3 of South America. But also look at the vast cyclonic swirl approaching Chile, which could dramatically alter temperatures and moisture/precipitation in the Andes Range, Argentina and the central portion of the continent by the middle of the new week.
METEOSAT
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
While June and the first half of July have been quite warm, and uncomfortably so in the countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea, I have to point out that Europe has had much worse in the way of heat. This is exemplified by the forecast for the subcontinent during the next 10 days. Storms in the northern Atlantic Ocean continue to plow through the subcontinent, with thunderstorms ahead of moderately strong cold fronts in a belt from the British Isles and France into western Russia. The cooler values will not get much below the Pyrennees and the Alps Ranges, given the vast heat ridge complex covering northern Africa into the Levant. But the weather behind these impulses will mostly be clear and pleasantly mild or warm.
The Saharan heat ridge complex is impressive, but is further north than in previous years. Some moisture is popping up in mesoscale weakness within the ridging, hence the small pockmarks on the satellite images revealing convection. Note also that the ITCZ percolation is farther north and expansive, which will result in some very heavy rains in the Horn Of Africa and Nile Headwaters. Most of these impulses will continue to trigger flooding rainfall into the Congo Basin and the nations bordering the equatorial Atlantic Ocean. A trough across Mozambique and South Africa will keep marginally cool weather in the near term. But the Kalahari heat ridge maintains fair and very warm, dry conditions across the interior of the southern third of the African continent.
