TODAY'S FUN LINKS: | | Yale Climate Connections - 4 April 2024Colorado State University’s hurricane forecasting team is calling for a near-record active season with 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes. |
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| | Investment Needed in African Climate Science University of Leeds - 27 March 2024 New research says that Africa needs long term investment in scientific infrastructure and science careers to allow the continent to adapt to climate change and its effect on weather systems. |
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| | Colorado State University - 4 April 2024 Focusing on Earth's atmospheric water cycle, scientists from around the globe wrote story-based scenarios about the possible futures humanity is facing but perhaps can’t quite comprehend yet. |
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| | Brookhaven National Laboratory - 20 March 2024A group of atmospheric scientists is offering a consensus physical science research roadmap to build the knowledge base needed to evaluate the viability of MCB approaches. |
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| | Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - 26 March 2024 A new study reveals that floods are more extreme when several factors are involved in their development. |
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WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail)
E Lower MI....N OH....N PA....SW NY....ON Peninsula
Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits
CA....NW NV
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
Isolated Locations In
E Lower MI....N OH....N PA....SW NY....ON Peninsula
(QPF 1 - 2")
Isolated Locations In
CA....NW NV
(QPF 1 - 2")
EXCESSIVE HEAT POTENTIAL
(potential for temperatures exceeding 95 deg F)
Isolated Locations In
C, E NM....W, C TX....W OK....SW KS....SE CO
(a review of important weather features around the world)
IODC
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
The storm sequence is holding off the heat ridges. For now.
There are more cases for strong or severe thunderstorms across all of the Middle East, Persia, and Pakistan. But each new impulse will take an ever-so-slightly northward trajectory, so that by mid-May the most likely path scenario will be from the Black Sea into northern Turkmenistan. This is important because there is a heat ridge complex from the Sahel, Arabian Sea and Indian subcontinent just waiting to climb northward. There is still about a month before the real "blaster" heat arrives at or above 35 N Latitude. So in the meantime, be set for flooding rain and severe weather (the worst this round will be over the Persian Gulf and southern Iran, but Turkey and northern Iraq could also be hard hit).
HIMAWARI 8
Kochi University
The Madden-Julian Oscillation may be fractured/incoherent, but the moisture and tropical forcing component is alive and well, feeding into an impressive subtropical jet stream approaching the West Coast of North America. The overall trend across eastern Asia and the western Pacific Basin will feature disturbances and frontal structures passing through, but strongest intensity will not occur until the impulses are to the right of the International Dateline. To the right of the MJO, you can make out thunderstorm clusters in Oceani which still could develop into tropical cyclones.
Note that Australia and New Zealand have calmed considerably. But there will be risks for intense named storms in this zone, particularly along the equatorial Australian shoreline.
GOES WEST
NOAA/NESDIS
In what is a "here it comes" moment, a strong mid-latitude cyclone over the middle of the Pacific Basin is linked with a vigorous subtropical jet stream that is attached to the MJO convective sequence in warm equatorial waters. With more energy and cold air present upstream, there will be a substantial risk for a one-two punch of weather extremes from the Pacific Northwest through the Intermountain Region into Texas, the Great Plains, and Midwest.
GOES EAST
NOAA/NESDIS
Note the impressive surface convergence over both the Amazon River watershed and Chile/Argentina into southern Brazil. The weather across South America is starting to act similar to conditions tied to La Nina, with abundant orographic and stratiform precipitation.
Across North America, the departure of a strong storm offshore of Nova Scotia will allow clear skies, with moderating temperatures, to progress from the High Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. A very warm and dry (for now) air mass out of Mexico will expand rapidly into the Mississippi River watershed on Sunday and Monday.
METEOSAT
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
The trough and cold frontal passages continue across Europe. For now at least, the Saharan heat ridge is in a much-weakened state. So much so that an upper low will dig very far south, reaching Tunisia and Libya on Tuesday before recurving into the Balkan Peninsula. This is the kind of pattern that can deliver some heavy rain and thunderstorms in the subcontinent, while at the same time creating miserable weather from the British Isles into Germany and Poland over the next two weeks. If hot weather appears at all, it would have to be over the Iberian Peninsula next weekend or the Ukraine and western Russia in the 6-10 day time frame.
You can see flare-ups of thunderstorms associated with the ITCZ across central Africa. It is too early of course for tropical cyclone development, But the more widespread convective formations may increase and shift further north and west by mid-summer.
