TODAY'S FUN LINKS: | | Yale Climate Connections - 21 February 2025Firings and budget cuts could slow emergency disaster response and weaken resilience efforts. |
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| | NASA - 13 February 2025NASA data experts recently walked researchers, college faculty, graduate students, and others through using the repository during a workshop at the AMS Annual Meeting in New Orleans. |
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| | Ars Technica - 21 February 2025 New research found that strong localized winds can "bounce" due to interference between tall buildings, increasing pressure on walls and windows. |
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WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits
NW TX....W OK
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
CA....S NV....W AZ
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
Isolated Locations In
NW TX....W OK
(QPF 1 - 2")
Isolated Locations In
CA....NV....AZ
(QPF 1 - 3")
WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL
(potential for Moderate Icing, Snow 2 - 4" or more, and/or temperatures below 10 deg F)
Scattered Locations In
CA....NV
(Snow; Mostly Above 4000 Feet; 4 - 24")
Isolated Locations In
N SK....N MB
(Snow; 4 - 12")
Scattered Locations In
C, E ON....NE OH....N, C PA....N NJ....NY....CT....RI....MA....VT....NH....ME....NS,,,,NB....PEI....NL Labrador
(Intense Cold)
Scattered Locations In
E QC....S Labrador
(Snow; 4 - 12"
(a review of important weather features around the world)
IODC
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
What? ANOTHER 500MB cutoff low?
Unfortunately we have graduated into spring storm season across the Middle East/Southwest Asia, and the results are not going to be pretty. While the emphasis for deep cold air almost assuredly will drift into Russia and the Central Asian Republics, a broad, cold low over the Mediterranean Sea will move gradually eastward. This disturbed area shows up well in satellite views, and will possibly stall in Iraq by next weekend. Many of the forecast schemes show a linkage with equatorial moisture (the famed "Out of Africa" fetch....), producing excessive amounts of precipitation across much of the Levant into the Caucasus and in Iran as well. The cold dome may be strong enough to bring the freeze and snow/ice lines as far south as Khuzestan Province and the Baghdad Iraq metro.
If it is any comfort, the coldest air across the region should be gone by the midpoint of this month.
HIMAWARI 8
METEOBLUE; Kochi University
The Madden-Julian Oscillation has shifted dramatically over the past few days, going from an incoherent, strong, Southern Hemisphere emphasis to a Phase 6 centered impulse with a linkage to the storm sequence passing through the northern half of the Pacific Basin. This is important for two reasons. The forcing associated with the low pressure reaching North America may produce abundant severe weather, possibly followed by a quick cold intrusion into the heart of North America. The coldest weather in this type of setup will be in Russia. A new Kelvin wave in India and Sri Lanka will break down this MJO Phase scenario later in the new week.
Australia has emerged under widespread heat and dryness, with a total erasure of the northern "The Wet". There is a frontal structure approaching New Zealand, with evidence for a tropical cyclone formation just north in Oceania.
GOES WEST
NOAA/NESDIS
It looks ugly in the eastern Pacific Ocean, as well it should. The forerunner impulse of a massive storm sequence is approaching the West Coast, and by Monday should be located over the Intermountain Region. As an aggregate, the entire system is likely to trigger a severe weather outbreak from Texas and Oklahoma north and east to the Eastern Seaboard in the March 4 - 6 time frame. The moisture azis off of the coast of Mexico will quickly destabilize the atmosphere to the right of the surface frontal structure, so everything from torrential rainfall to hail, high winds and tornadoes are probable in the warm sector of this system.
GOES EAST
NOAA/NESDIS
Arctic air is still widespread across Canada and should make a return to the lower Great Lakes and Northeast on Sunday. Much of the USA is no worse than partly cloudy and mild.
A massive tropical wave is impacting Brazil. This feature is more commonly seen in the Northern Hemisphere summer, but will have rainfall impacts as it tracks west into the Andes Range. A weak frontal structure is triggering heavy rain and thunder in the Rio De La Plata vicinity.
METEOSAT
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
The segmented jet stream flow across Europe seems to be dominated by the southern branch. Note the storm over the western third of the Mediterranean Sea. This feature could bring excessive precipitation via thunderstorms and mountain snowfall before it reaches the Middle East on Friday. Most of tghe subcontinent is near normal or mild in terms of temperatures.
Curiously, a lone ITCZ wave exting the coast of Nigeria is well-developed but not followed by any major areas of rainfall. Isolated thunderstorms are occurring along and below the Congo Basin in a hot and humid atmosphere. The northern half of Africa is generally dry and warm, but the computer models suggest a moisture fetch developing out of the Nile Headwaters later this week.
