TODAY'S FUN LINKS: | | For CCHS Weather Club, the Sky's the Limit The Concord Bridge - 2 December 2025 The CCHS Weather Club is one of only eight precollege clubs recognized by AMS; to its faculty advisor, it’s a way to get kids excited about something beyond what’s offered in the everyday curriculum. |
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| | KUOW - 10 December 2025Climate migration is difficult to study and even harder to predict, but some experts say a historic population shift has already begun. |
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WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
NE TX....AR....E MO....IL....W IN....Lower MI....NW OH....ON Peninsula....W, C NY
STRONG WINDS
(Pressure Gradient Derived)
W AR....MO....IA....MN....W ON....Upper MI....W WI
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
Scattered Locations In
Coastal BC
(QPF 1 - 3")
Scattered Locations In
E MO....IL....W IN....Lower MI....NW OH....ON Peninsula....W, C NY
(QPF 1 - 3")
WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL
(potential for Moderate Icing, Snow 2 - 4" or more, and/or temperatures below 10 deg F)
Scattered Locations In
MN....WI....Upper MI
(Snow, 4 - 8"; Near Blizzard)
Scattered Locations In
MB....W ON....ND....SD....W, C MN
(Intense Cold With Wind Chill)
(a review of important weather features around the world)
IODC
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
Winter in the Middle East creeps in on little cat feet.
The steady input of storms that starts out in Scandinavia and winds through the Balkan Peninsula and then into the Middle East will have a presence in the Levant and Iran as we move into January. But there is still some influence from the flat subtropical high across the southern Arabian Peninsula. Each successive disturbance will suppress the 500MB ridging a little further south, so that by the second week of January most of southwestern Asia will be quite cold. Snow potential turns up in a general belt from Anatolia through Kurdistan into the Caucasus, and later through Afghanistan. The cold air will have its deepest grip on the region in February. Then, as a developing ENSO positive /neutral signal takes over, the warmth should make a very pronounced return through Saudi Arabia and Persia in mid-March.
For now, though, genuinely cold air is accompanying the storms.
HIMAWARI 8
METEOBLUE; Kochi University
As is so often the case in discussions involving global or tropical meteorology, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, the position, strength, and linkage with the jet stream configuration can be a huge help in determining forecasts during the winter and spring. Unlike other times since Halloween, the MJO signature is vibrant and covers Phases 2 through 5. A connection is easily seen to both the polar and subtropical branches. This particular array often helps to initiate an intense storm path through Mexico, the southern and eastern USA, and around the Grand Banks. In so doing, the set-up for rapid temperature and precipitation changes are present. Tropical cyclone potential is mostly in the Southern Hemisphere (northern Australia and Chagos, respectively), while cold air drainage will be most evident in Siberia into eastern China.
Note that the Australian subcontinent and New Zealand are taking on a mostly fair and warmer aspect, as a frontal structure tracks north and eastward.
GOES WEST
NOAA/NESDIS
The spread of active weather across the central and eastern Pacific Basin holds clues to the general alignment of temperature and precipitation upcoming in North America. This pattern is something of a hybrid between synoptic characteristics of La Nina climatology and that often found with an El Nino. The problem occurs when items like the sub-Aleutian vortex merge with energy and moisture in the subtropical jet stream. Cases such as the "Blizzard of January 1996, the great Boston snow of 2015 and the February "Dam Break/Bomb Drop" in 2021 have their roots in this scenario, so for the next two months we must watch the evolution of the atmospheric pattern very carefully. The warmer temperatures in Mexico, Texas and the Great Plains could break down very easily, while the West Coast could again be hot with bands of heavy precipitation from the broad trough along and to the left of the Pacific shoreline.
GOES EAST
NOAA/NESDIS
While it is true that mile weather dominates the central portion of the USA, earlier numerical model predictions of coast-to-coast, border-to-border massive warm-up have not quite been born out. Bitter cold air in Alaska and Canada is being sustained by ridging above the Arctic Circle and cAk vortices moving proximate to the International Border. When the energy passes by, thye cold can be drawn southward rapidly, which is expected in early week across the Mississippi Valley into the Eastern Seaboard.
There are still cold frontal passages across southern Chile and Argentina. The atmosphere above those two nations is very humid, but with limited diurnal convection. Most of the thunderstorms are occurring with the aforementioned frontal structure and in orographic lift along the right side of the Andes Range.
METEOSAT/SEVERI
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
It is Europe's turn to witness widespread bitter cold.
The storm complex over the eastern Atlantic Ocean will head eastward and merge with an Arctic vortex dropping out of Finland by Monday morning. This formative gyre will bring near-record cold across the subcontinent, and later migrate across Russia and the Central Asian Republics. The snow cover will extend further south, with the cAk vortex expected to pass south of Moscow at midweek.
The Saharan ridge complex is strengthening, depressing the ITCZ well below the Equator while projecting generally warm and dry conditions through northern Africa into Saudi Arabia. Note the large thunderstorms across the Congo Basin into Kenya and Uganda. This hot and humid atmosphere is settling in for the summer as Antarctic cold fronts remain far to the south.
