WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, February 7, 2026

[Larry Cosgrove]

EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST

(Between Day 11 And Day 15)

 

Like It Or Not, Massive Nationwide Cold Wave Will Replace Currently Evolving Warming Trend

NOHRSC (2)

CIMSS (2)

TropicalTidbits.Com (Dr. Levi Cowan) (3)

NOAA/PMEL

NOAA/CPC

ECMWF

HPRCC (University Of Nebraska) (2)

Environment Canada

WeatherBELL (8)

Just when you thought that Spring was making an early arrival, the reality of February returns to provide a cold, harsh reminder that the words "snow" and "cold" have relevance even into April. A nice warm-up in the middle of this month is unlikely to last, as the winter pattern of a cold start, mild middle, and cold end is likely to play out in this short-time month. You will hear the usual media remarks about higher sun angle, weakening La Nina, and rising temperature normals. But all of that talk may pale in comparison with sensible weather and predictions from groundhogs in Central Pennsylvania. We are going to feel the cold in much of the nation for the last third of February and very likely the first week or so of March. And that drop in temperature will be accompanied by snow and perhaps some ice.

The 500MB configuration forecast by most of the numerical model guidance seems similar to the early and middle portion from this past January. That is where most of my predictions for the remainder of the month into early/mid March are headed. As sea surface temperatures in the western/central Pacific Basin increase, a Kelvin wave associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation will make forward progress from its current Phase 5-6-7 position into a 8-1 realm. Connections to both the polar westerlies and the subtropical jet stream are already apparent. At the same time, the dominant Gulf of Alaska vortex should minor out across southern Canada, allowing a newer, colder gyre to solidify below the Aleutian Islands. We should be headed back to the familiar -EPO vs. -NAO alignment (Alaska vs. Greenland). The rift between those two ridges opens up a channel from Siberia into the Yukon/Northwest Territories and Nunavut AR, fueling another cAk blast like that in the last week of January.

Southern branch storm tracks that are concurrent with Arctic intrusions often produce extensive snow and ice, and I think an arc from Texas and Oklahoma through Appalachia into the Mid-Atlantic and New England states. As was the case with the recent vortex formations and cold shots into the Great Lakes and Eastern Seaboard, there will be follow-up cAk regimes with wind and snow squalls affecting the middle and upper Interstate 95 corridor. The western  half of the USA (perhaps also into British Columbia and Alberta via renewed +PNA ridge development) will moderate and dry out again. As the ENSO signature warms, reaching a flat neutral stance around April 1, the threats for cold regimes should shift toward southern and central Canada later next month. But before then, weather will prove quite interesting across the lower 48 states.

And I hope that you realize I was only kidding about the groundhog. 😁

 

Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Saturday, February 7, 2026 at 11:15 P.M. CT

Disclaimer: 
The previous statements are my opinions only, and should not be construed as definitive fact. Links provided on this newsletter are not affiliated with WEATHERAmerica and the publisher is not responsible for content posted or associated with those sites.

Copyright 2026 by Larry Cosgrove

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