TODAY'S FUN LINKS: | | Does Ocean Saltiness Influence El Niño? Duke University - 23 February 2026 In a finding that could inform development of more precise El Niño forecasts, a new study reveals that variability in ocean salt content affects El Niño intensity. |
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| | University of Rhode Island - 3 February 2026New research reveals that distinct groups of microbes orchestrate the seasonal nitrogen cycling that shapes soil fertility, challenging long-held assumptions about how microbes build biomass. |
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WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Large Hail, Microbursts, Isolated Tornadoes)
C, S TX
Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits
MS....AL...FL....GA....SC....NC....VA....DC....MD....DE
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
Isolated Locations In
S, C TX
(QPF 1 - 3")
Isolated Locations In
MS....AL...FL....GA....SC....NC....VA....DC....MD....DE
(QPF 1 - 3")
WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL
(potential for Moderate Icing, Snow 2 - 4" or more, and/or temperatures below 10 deg F)
Isolated Locations In
S AB....S SK....S MB....N, C ON....W QC
(Snow; Some Mixture With Sleet, Freezing Drizzle; 3 - 6")
Scattered Locations In
NW MT....BC....WA Olympic Peninsula
(Snow; 4 - 36"; Above 4000 Feet)
(a review of important weather features around the world)
IODC
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
The spring storm season (with some help from the "Out Of Africa" fetch is upon the Middle East and Persia.
There is now a broad subtropical jet stream across northern Africa. As the wind field approaches Eritrea and the Red Sea, there is some recurvature of the moisture axis into Yemen and Saudi Arabia. Over time, with the arrival of a northern stream low and Rex block formation, the clouds and precipitation bands will thicken and deliver thunderstorms to Iran, with heavy snowfall in locations along the higher elevations of the Zagros, Alborz and Kurdistan mountain ranges. Cooler air will factor into the forecast in much of the Levant, but most of the model guidance is reluctant to introduce any cP values to Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and the southern and eastern provinces in Persia. Note the persistent heat ridge in India, which looks strong and should start to build/retrogress northwest around May 1. Arctic air will make its last attempt at chiling Asia (Russia to Mongolia, northeastern China) in mid-March.
Then we see an El Nino Spring, with a warm North, cool Central, hot South alignment.
HIMAWARI 8
METEOBLUE; Kochi University
The Madden-Julian Oscillation is illuminated by satellite imagery, with a broad base from northern Australia through Indonesia and the western/central Pacific Basin. The signature looks very healthy with its convective array starting to feed both the polar jet stream and southern branch. This set-up is associated with strong but transient Arctic intrusions in North America, and can be a catalyst for intense winter-type storms in the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast in about ten days' time. Other disturbances in Asia are keeping the intense heat across southern portions of India and indochina from spreading into China and Japan.
Tropical forcing is still an influence in Australia, but most of the subcontinent is very warm. Frontal structure skimming the Australian coastline will bring repeated rain and squall activity to New Zealand.
GOES WEST
NOAA/NESDIS
A massive Arctic vortex over and below the Aleutian Islands will be working with a cold storm complex and subtropical jet stream southwest of Mexico to produce some rather stormy conditions in much of the lower 48 states during the new week. The mAk circulation will pump ridging over the western half of the continent, forcing the system off of the West Coast to move into Mexico and then Texas. Cold air may straddle the U.S./Canada border, then be pulled southward as the energy moves into TX and then into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Severe weather may be a big problem along its track, while snow, sleet and freezing rain targets Ontario, Michigan, the interior Northeast and Quebec.
GOES EAST
NOAA/NESDIS
Thunderstorms have recently taken center stage in the USA, with Texas, Oklahoma and Michigan targeted and the first severe weather-related fatalities of the new year reported. There will be more such threats in the new week, as colder/stable air will have little luck getting below the far northern tier of states. The moisture fetch stretching from the Gulf Coast into the Northeast may waver, but then return around March 10-11 through interaction with the advancing colder air mass and storm sitting off of Baja California.
Note the spectacular convective display across much of South America, with an intersection of ITCZ waves and frontal structure along and to the right of the Andes. This configuration is still not showing any signs of much colder weather, but the potential for a flooding rain scenario will be present from Bolivia into northern Argentina for the next week or so.
METEOSAT
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
I bet that you are wondering what that full-latitude storm and cold front over the northern Atlantic Ocean is going to do. Dynamics are impressive and the moisture injection from the equatorial regions might normally give cause for alarm. That said, forward motion is very slow, and persistent ridging across the middle of Europe will probably weaken the trough complex as the energy moves eastward. The southern portion of this system will likely track through the Mediterranean countries, setting up chances for stratiform and convective rainfall in Italy, the Balkan Peninsula, and Anatolia through March 17. Temperatures should be cool in much of the subcontinent, but the Spring sun should inhibit the chance to see any Arctic type temperatures.
Water vapor imagery shows a well-defined subtropical jet stream riding through the entirety of the Sahel and across Eritrea into Saudi Arabia. You can see a moisture fetch through Mozambique and into the Nile River headwaters one of the roots of a flow pattern that could trigger moderate to heavy precipitation in the UAE and Iran during the next ten days. Much of Africa has dried out at surface, which may be symptomatic of a coming shift to an El Nino episode.
