WEATHERAmerica Newsletter; Saturday, March 1, 2025; EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST

[Larry Cosgrove]

EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST

(Between Day 11 And Day 15)

 

A "La Nina Spring Pattern" Sets Up Across North America

CIMSS (2)

NOHRSC (2)

TropicalTidbits.Com (Dr. Levi Cowan) (3)

NOAA/PMEL

NOAA/CPC

HPRCC/University Of Nebraska (4)

Environment Canada

ECMWF (3)

TropicalTidbits.Com (Dr. Levi Cowan) (5)

As can be seen by the averages for precipitation and temperature for the "official" winter 2024-25 just ended, the predictions of a temperature DJF time frame were not that far off. Granted the Midwest and Eastern Seaboard were somewhat below normal in thermal averages. But in January and February the Arctic air mass twice once broke out of its dominant area in Montana and the Dakotas. Precipitation and snowfall were mostly lower than was forecast, and the small snow event in the Gulf Coast area last month caused few problems. The dryness from Mexico into the lower and middle High Plains may play an important role in the forecast for the spring and summer months.

Arctic air will have few chances to dig into the USA in March outside of occasional visits to the Pacific Northwest and the New England states. The problem for the first half of Spring is likely to be severe weather and high winds, and the risk for a blizzard in the Front Range, middle High Plains and Black Hills. The 500MB configuration is very similar to climatology for a weak-to-moderate La Nina, even though a neutral ENSO stance is likely by this coming summer. Frequent cases of southwest flow aloft involving Mexico and Texas as a source region will largely prevent any cold shots from reaching east of the Interstate 25 and 94 corridors. Much of Canada may be trapped in the proverbial icebox until early April.

It is still too early to outline hurricane risks and actual heat ridge positions; those predictions will likely not be available until April 21 or so. But I think that we get a warm start and relatively soon, as blocking ridges are no longer viable and the subtropical highs have already arisen in Mexico, Cuba and below Bermuda.

 

Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Saturday, March 1, 2025 at 2:30 P.M. CT

Disclaimer: 
The previous statements are my opinions only, and should not be construed as definitive fact. Links provided on this newsletter are not affiliated with WEATHERAmerica and the publisher is not responsible for content posted or associated with those sites.

Copyright 2025 by Larry Cosgrove

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