WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, February 28, 2026; WEATHER HAZARDS And GLOBAL SATELLITE IMAGERY

[Larry Cosgrove]

WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)

 

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)

 

Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits

S FL

 

HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)

 

Isolated Locations In

SE KS....NE OK

(QPF 1 - 2")

 

WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL

(potential for Moderate Icing, Snow 2 - 4" or more, and/or temperatures below 10 deg F)

 

Isolated Locations In

NE KS....SE NE....NW MO

(Snow, Sleet; 2 - 4")

Isolated Locations In

OR....N CA

(Snow; Above 4000 Feet; 4 - 8")

GLOBAL WEATHER SUMMARY

(a review of important weather features around the world)

 

IODC

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT

 

The return of the "Out Of Africa" fetch, And the first signs of the India-Persia Heat ridge.

The synoptic features around  the Levant into South Asia are taking on more of an "El Nino" look. Consider that the subtropical jet stream is quite visible through northern Africa into the Arabian Peninsula and on into southern Iran. Many of the numerical models forecast sizable, if not heavy, thunderstorm formation in  classic "Out Of Africa' signature upper flow, where moisture pools in the Nile Headwaters, heads northeast while gathering more high dewpoints from the Red Sea and Persian Gulf. Colliding with a trough and upper low that settles across the Caucasus and eastern Mediterranean Sea, heavy snowfall will develop in the cold air over Turkey eastward to Turkmenistan. But keep in mind that the Arctic vortex stays in Siberia, and the building sun angle will make it tougher for areas outside of the mountains to see frozen precipitation. 

Meanwhile, there is a consistent heat ridge signature over India, and many locations in the Indian subcontinent will be getting into heat and drought risks as the spring season gets underway. If predictions hold up, an extensive subtropical high will intensify and retrogress into Iraq/Kuwait and Iran, with another scorcher summer arriving in southwestern Asia and North Africa.

 

HIMAWARI 8

METEOBLUE; Kochi University

 

Much of the Madden-Julian Oscillation remains below the Equator, infringing on Australia. There is some linkage with a frontal structure with origins well below Tasmania, which typically would argue against any coming influence in the Northern Hemisphere. There is also a growing cyclone threat in Oceania, But a budding Kelvin wave is entering Phases 6 and 7. There is some energy/moisture transfer into a dual mAk vortex structure below the Aleutian Islands and over the Gulf of Alaska. Hence a chance for ridge expansion in western Canada and the Arctic Ocean, which in time could force colder air remaining across the southern Canadian provinces into the lower 48 states. Consider, however, the true Arctic regime will remain in Siberia through at least the next ten days, tending to shrink in coverage over time.

 

GOES WEST

NOAA/NESDIS

 

Cold air is still impressive over Alaska, Canada, and Greenland, with a small inclusion through the Great Lakes and the Northeast. This is why a small disturbance taking shape in the Great Plains may deliver some mixed/frozen precipitation in parts of the Corn Belt, Mid-Atlantic and New England on Sunday and Monday. Ridging from Mexico through the West will expand toward the Southeast this week, affording a nice warm-up along and below 40 N Latitude. The progression of the first of two closed lows in the northern Pacific Basin suggests more snowfall on the Canada side of the International Border, and additional warming in the lower 48 states by next weekend.

But the sub-Aleutian Islands vortex may prove more difficult to understand, with a possible linkage with the subtropical jet stream and a resulting Front Range/High Plains blizzard and colder trend in the western half of the continent as we enter the longer term.

 

GOES EAST

NOAA/NESDIS

 

The cAk vortex in Nunavut AR is still very large and extremely cold. Recession above the International Border will take some time, keeping the Great Lakes and the Northeast in the cold air a while longer. But the mostly fair skies and warm temperatures seen in the western 2/3 of the lower 48 states may push further east as a humid layer from the Gulf of Mexico grows further north; thunderstorm potential will rise markedly in the south central states and Ohio/Tennessee Valley during the middle of the new week.

A spectacular, very early season cold front merge with the tropical wave train is shown from Brazil into Antarctica. The ITCZ is active across the equatorial Atlantic Ocean, but is deviated from its usual progression across the Amazon Basin. While temperatures are still generally quite warm in South America, the advance of an Antarctic cold front and vortex toward Chile may bring a temperature drop there and in Argentina by next weekend.

 

METEOSAT

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; RAMMB/SLIDER

 

Weather across Europe seems unremarkable, at least for now. Colder air remains mostly in Scandinavia and across northern Russia. A southern branch storm moving through Morocco and Spain may intensify in a few days, and heavy precipitation may be an issue through the Italian, Balkan and Anatolian Peninsulas from March 3 - 9.

Note the broad fetch of moisture and mainly diurnal thunderstorms from South Africa into the Red Sea, the beginning of the Spring "Out of Africa" moisture advection phenomenon. A similar tropical/Sahel dewpoint fetch is seen in the western Sahara, which should lower temperatures somewhat of an increase in chances for meaningful rainfall in the drier portion of above-Equatorial portions of the African continent.