WINTER SEASON OUTLOOK, November 2015 Through March 2016, SUMMARY;10/30/2015

[Larry Cosgrove]

EUROPE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY FORECAST

 

I have heard of many very cold, snowy forecasts for the European Union though some major vendors and international media. But the analog-derived forecasts do not bear that opinion out. Rather, a fairly variable DJFM period seems likely, with the southern half of the subcontinent more often than not escaping any Arctic blasts. I foresee a continuation of the current pattern, which is quite active with southern and northern branch storms. Scandinavia and Russia may have issues with intense cold in the heart of winter, while temperatures in the Balkan Peninsula and Anatolia look to be mostly milder than seasonal averages.

 

ASIA AND THE ORIENT TEMPERATURE ANOMALY FORECAST

 

 

While the forecast temperature array over much of Asia may seem mild or even warm, a careful look reveals potential for cold advection in much of China and even Japan for about half of the DJFM period. The worst of the cold is projected for Russia east of the Ural Mountains. Precipitation chances may increase, with some cooler response, over South Asia and Indochina, especially if there is a breakdown in El Nino after January 1.

 

SUMMARY

 

 

 

 

 

Predictions:

This winter season looks to get off to a very mild start in much of the nation, go through about 10 weeks of cold and frozen precipitation threats east of the Rocky Mountains, then end on a decidedly spring-like note in the last ten days of March.

Most of the storm tracks will be through the southern and eastern tiers of the nation. An area from the Pacific Northwest into the Great Plains and Midwest may tend drier than average, although the central states could see increased snow and rain threats at the close of the season in mid-March.

The El Nino episode looks to have more in common with some of the colder expressions of the phenomenon. largely due to the vast positive signal of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and chances for ridging at higher latitudes in and near North America.

Caveats

 

If the El Nino episode lasts longer than is forecast by numerical models, the colder forecast for JFM may be jeopardized.

A sudden, unexpected weakening of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation would likely eliminate or severely reduce cold advection potential from Siberia and Canada this winter.

The risk for major storms can jeopardize this outlook in two ways. One would be for increased warm advection ahead of the systems along the Eastern Seaboard (the 1972-73 scenario). Secondly would be for a truly immense cyclonic formation that re-arranges the upper air pattern and stimulates excessive cold air drainage, as was seen in 1977-78 and 2009-10 cases.

Winter precipitation predictions in California may not verify well if the +PDO array remains. Some disturbances may get through, but the stubborn -EPO and +PNA ridge formations look to persist more often than not.

 

Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Friday, October 30, 2015 at 9:00 A.M. CT

Disclaimer: 
The previous statements are my opinions only, and should not be construed as definitive fact. Links provided on this newsletter are not affiliated with WEATHERAmerica and the publisher is not responsible for content posted or associated with those sites.

Copyright 2015 by Larry Cosgrove

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