WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, March 30, 2024; EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST

[Larry Cosgrove]

EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST

(Between Day 11 And Day 15)

 

Active Storm Track May Yield Unstable Temperature Pattern And Increasing Severe Weather Potential

CIMSS (2)

NOHRSC (2)

TropicalTidbits.Com (Dr. Levi Cowan) (3)

NOAA/PMEL

NOAA/CPC

HPRCC (University Of Nebraska) (2)

Environment Canada

ECMWF (3)

TropicalTidbits.Com (Dr. Levi Cowan) (5)

NOAA/CPC

If the various numerical models covering the longer term forecast are correct, the general trend of weather across North America will feature roughly a storm every 5 days, originating in the Aleutian Islands, dropping into northern California, then Colorado, the Ohio Valley and on into the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Convective precipitation toi the right of the track, as well as stratiform rain within the cold and overrunning sectors of the cyclones, will likely depress temperatures in much of the central and southern USA. Most guidance has a mild/warm Canada trend through April. This is not a trend favorable for important snow (though some could form at higher latitudes and elevations), but will be favorable for severe weather and flooding events from Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas through the Midwest and the Eastern Seaboard.

Where, then, will the hot weather start? Just like what is expected in the near term, over parts of Texas and through the Deep South, the disturbance series will pull up cT+mT regimes that will help spark strong or severe thunderstorms, most likely along the Interstate 10 and 20 corridors, but sometimes reaching up into the Corn and Tobacco Belts. If the April 7 - 10 storm depiction is repeated, we will have a very active season for tornadoes as the heat ridge complex in Mexico and another over the Greater Antilles tend to conjoin and force the ongoing baroclinic zone into higher latitudes. There is an eerie model/analog agreement on some time of event in mid-May, that would see a northward expansion of the subtropical high, with a weakness across the West. That might mean a very hot JJA period mostly east of the Rocky Mountains, with the worst thunderstorm threats shifting into southern Canada (Alberta through Ontario and northern Quebec). I am watching this set-up carefully because ultimately breaching of the anticyclone will occur, probably later August through the upcoming fall. If so, we could see more active tropical cyclone threats to the Gulf Coast, and then the Eastern Seaboard.

 

Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Saturday, March 30, 2024 at 7:20 P.M. CT

Disclaimer: 
The previous statements are my opinions only, and should not be construed as definitive fact. Links provided on this newsletter are not affiliated with WEATHERAmerica and the publisher is not responsible for content posted or associated with those sites.

Copyright 2024 by Larry Cosgrove

All rights reserved.
This publication may not be reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part without the expressed written consent of the author.