WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, April 8, 2023 at 11:25 PM CT; Medium Range Outlook

[Larry Cosgrove]

MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK

(Four To Ten Days From Now)

 

Mostly Mild-To-Warm, Calm Pattern Nationwide Except For Pacific Northwest, Gulf Coast

ECMWF (4)

PivotalWeather.Com (4)

We should see a generally calm, and mild or warm, forecast for most of the lower 48 states during the next seven days. The expansion of the shortwave ridge into the Great Plains, and then the Eastern Seaboard, will keep most locations stable and allow for warmer values. Cold pooling across the Intermountain Region is not impressive in any case, and it will not be until perhaps Saturday that the "lazy" pattern starts to give way to thunderstorm threats.

West Coast Trough (With Thunderstorms) Makes Its Move Into Great Plains Next Weekend

UQAM Meteocentre (4)

TrueWx.Com (4)

TwisterData.Com (4)

College Of DuPage Weather Laboratory (2)

While the general atmospheric pattern starts out as "nice and warm", we are reminded that nothing lasts forever. By April 15, the trough complex reforms over the Great Plains, with a marginal cold pool across the north central U.S, into northern Ontario. With the surface low pressure taking the now-familiar "Panhandle Hooker" track (probably the "A" variety), moist and unstable air will overtake Texas and the lower/middle Great Plains next weekend. This looks like a severe weather set-up from KS, OK, and TX through much of the Corn Belt and Old South. Temperatures will likely cool only briefly behind the frontal structure on April 17-18. I see no mechanism for Arctic air returning to the U.S. until late fall, although snow may occur across the northern High Plains into the MN/ON Boundary waters.