WEATHERAmerica Newsletter; Saturday; March 15, 2025

[Larry Cosgrove]

SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK

(Through The Next 72 Hours)

 

In Case You Were Wondering About The Severe Weather Outbreak In Dixie

Note that the disturbance associated with the ongoing severe thunderstorms and tornadoes (hail needs a mention as well) is separate from the gyre that sprung wind, dust, fire, and (today) snow from Texas into the Dakotas and western Minnesota. It was a southern branch shortwave that I had expected to arrive 24 hours later. But the dynamics with this feature are impressive, as is the instability and surface convergence (cold, dry/dust, warm/moist) that will continue to generate intense convection across KY, TN, MS, AL, W GA as we move into the night hours. There may be strong storms Sunday from Florida up through the Eastern Seaboard and southern New England.

Another disturbance, now entering the Gulf of Alaska, will dump heavy snow through the Intermountain Region, and by midweek enter the Missouri Valley. Snow could be moderate/heavy in its cold sector (NE to MN/WI), but this is a compact and more linear disturbance that will be less prone to trigger severe weather as it pushes through the lower Great Lakes and Corn Belt. The big concern for this system: another wind and dust storm with warm/dry air in Texas and Oklahoma.

METEOBLUE (2)

UQAM Meteocentre (3)

TwisterData.Com (3)

University Of Wisconsin (3)

College Of DuPage Weather Laboratory (2)

If You Are Wondering: Just A Brief Cold Intrusion In The Eastern Half Of The USA (While The West May Warm A Bit)

METEOBLUE

PivotalWeather.Com (3)

ECMWF

Despite the formation of a Hudson Bay Vortex (cA) and reports of a major stratospheric warming event (often used as a major guideline for Arctic outbreaks in North America), the bitter cold will stay in Canada for the near future. No string blocking signatures are present which would force the brutally cold gyre southward into the lower 48 states. The storms and associated cold pools over the northern Pacific Basin will have an impact on the Intermountain Region, aiding in the production of excessive snowfall there. But a shortwave ridge will take shape over the Strait of Yucatan in the near term, while the approach of a storm from the West Coast into the High Plains by Tuesday should spread a sometimes gusty west/southwest flow into Texas and the Great Plains. Inhaling air from mainland Mexico, that flow signature starts the process of warming most of the eastern two-thirds of the lower 48 states. Only the Pacific Northwest and parts of the northern High Plains are likely to turn colder. This looks to be a warm, mostly dry, Spring in the south central states.