TODAY'S FUN LINKS:Welcome to AMS News You Can Use |
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| | What the Heck Is Going to Happen to NOAA? Heatmap - 7 February 2025 Former AMS Executive Director Keith Seitter spoke about the possible breakup of the agency and what it would mean to “privatize” weather forecasting in the United States. |
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| | How Technology Is Helping DOTs Tackle Winter Storms (may require subscription) Forbes - 10 February 2025 As discussed at the recent AMS Annual Meeting, new weather modeling and advanced technology are making it easier for those responsible for roadways to make more informed decisions about the conditions of the road. |
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| | Yale Climate Connections - 7 Feburary 2025It broke records more than 100 years old for cold and snow in some spots—even as much of the nation had a less-than-brutal month. |
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| | FAU Engineers Design New Autonomous System to Monitor Arctic Ice Melt Florida Atlantic University - 10 February 2025 Researchers have proposed a design of an alternative, autonomous observational method that holds promise for improving the independence of marine vehicles, aiding in maritime missions, and gaining a deeper understanding of how melting Arctic sea ice affects marine ecosystems. |
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| | Space.com - 8 February 2025 Scientists continue to advance the process of updating NOAA's Space Weather Scales, with the next steps expected to be taken as early as this year. |
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| | How Does the Atmosphere Affect Ocean Weather? University of Rochester - 31 January 2025 New research reveals the surprising ways atmospheric winds influence ocean eddies, shaping the ocean’s weather patterns in more complex ways than previously believed. |
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| | Eos - 6 February 2025A new study maps and ranks the largest, longest-lasting, and most severe multi year droughts from 1980 to 2018. |
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WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
STRONG WINDS
ME....NH....MA....VT....S QC....E ON....NY....PA....NJ
(Pressure Gradient Derived)
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
Scattered Locations In
GA....SC....NC....VA....DC....MD....DE....C, E PA....NJ....E NY....CT....RI....C, E MA....S NH....Coastal ME, NS
(QPF 1 - 4")
WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL
(potential for Moderate Icing, Snow 2 - 4" or more, and/or temperatures below 10 deg F)
Numerous Locations In
AB....C, E MT....ND....C, E SD....N NE....IA....N, C IL....N, C IN....NW OH....MI....WI....MN....C, W ON....MB....SK....AB
(Intense Cold)
Scattered Locations In'
C, E TN....KY....W WV....OH....MI....C, E ON....W, C PA....W, C NY....C, S QC....N NB
(Snow; In Squalls; Near-Blizzard; 4 - 24")
Scattered Locations In
S BC....W MT....W WY....NW CO....N UT....ID....N NV....N, C CA....OR....WA
(Snow; Mostly Above 3000 Feet; 4 - 48")
(a review of important weather features around the world)
IODC
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
We are not done yet with cold intrusions. Or "Out Of Africa" moisture advection!
Seen plainly on IODC and INSAT imagery, that is the famed subtropical jet stream segment bringing moisture from the Nile Headwaters into Saudi Arabia and Iran. There is evidence from the model guidance that this higher dew point fetch will return off and on during the remainder of February and into early March. Disturbances over Europe are trying to dig into Cypress and the Holy Land in such a manner where an mTw air mass across eastern central Africa is tapped and brought northward. I suspect that the same set-up that is bringing rain and snow to the southern and eastern higher elevations of Persia and Pakistan will return. But probably banked to the left somewhat, involving not only Anatolia but also Iraq and Iran with chances for heavy precipitation (abundant snowfall in the mountainous regions of the Levant into the Indus watershed). Temperatures below 35 N Latitude may occasionally warm to near or even slightly above seasonal normals. But with another trough/closed low as near as the Caucasus and Turkmenistan, cold air may make a return by next weekend through most of the Middle East.
HIMAWARI 8
METEOBLUE; Kochi University
While the northern Pacific Basin storm sequence is getting most of the attention, it is wise to consider the workings of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in this pattern. There is a lack of linkage with the polar westerlies, so the storms and the cold pools associated with these circulation are not creating rapid intensity and cohesion that would set up a long-lasting cold wave. In Asia or North America. The MJO is mostly focused on the southern side of the Equator, which in the austral summer lends itself to tropical cyclone development in Oceania and the eastern Indian Ocean. Hot air has expanded northward, cutting back on "The Wet" episode in tropical Australia. Frontal structures are passing through Tasmania and New Zealand, however, reducing chances for a strong heatwave in those locations.
GOES WEST
NOAA/NESDIS
With an abundant moisture array west of Mexico and three strong mA vortices lined up to the left of the Pacific shoreline, the potential for inclement weather in North America will be quite high over the next ten days or so. Working in concert with a cAk vortex passing through the Prairie Provinces into the Great Lakes, snowfall threats will increase and may drop to the lowest latitudes seen so far this winter. Across the Intermountain Region, the procession of storms will bring very heavy rain and snow before a ridge becomes reestablished along and west of the Continental Divide in the medium range.
GOES EAST
NOAA/NESDIS
The most significant storm so far this winter is on the move out of the "Arklatex" on a path toward Albany New York and Moncton NB on Sunday. The cold temperature spectrum and large snowpack obscures the cloud outline of the low pressure, which will generate very strong winds via either thunderstorms in its warm sector, or heavy snow in its colder quadrants. Warm air is largely confined to Florida.
A vigorous tropical wave has formed in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean, and is progressing westward through the Amazon Riverwatershed. This is a different rainfall mechanism than the usual diurnal air mass convection in Brazil, and should bring excessive moisture to Venezuela, Colombia and Ecuador. Further south, a frontal structure moving out of northern Argentine will bring excessive rain and thunderstorms to the Rio De La Plata vicinity. Much of southern South America should remain hot and dry.
METEOSAT
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
Colder air will be progressive, so some of the numerical model forecasts of a very cold period in Europe are likely not going to verify. A ridge stretching from the Faroe Islands into Spain and Morocco will translate eastward by next weekend. Since the storm complex in the northern Atlantic Ocean will not follow suit (+NAO signature), milder and drier conditions will gain a foothold in most of the subcontinent as well as the British Isles by February 25.
The southern half of Africa has a lot of diurnal thunderstorms, but there is no immediate sign of a tropical cyclone approaching from the Indian Ocean. Conditions should warm appreciably in the Sahara Desert and Sahel, with the ITCZ becoming quiet heading toward the start of March.
