WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Sunday, November 16, 2025; NEXT TEN DAYS

[Larry Cosgrove]

SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK

(Through The Next 72 Hours)

 

Warm And Dry Pattern Continues In Much Of The USA (For Now)

METEOBLUE

PivotalWeather.Com (3)

ECMWF

College Of DuPage (2)

The very repetitive near term weather pattern is easy to point out on satellite and the temperature maps in the lower 48 states. With a strong Gulf of Alaska vortex not yet being absorbed or pushed out by an even stronger gyre along the Aleutian Islands, something close to a "La Nina type" alignment sets up. Warmth worthy of late spring continues in the new week from the south central states through Dixie. Otherwise it is a mild to cool spectrum, with the only cold or chilly values with an upper low in Ontario, Quebec through the Northeast and Maritime Provinces, following a storm in that vicinity on Sunday and Monday. Snow cover may increase over the Laurentian Range but not so much over the St. Lawrence Valley or New York/New England.

 

MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK

(Four To Ten Days From Now)

 

Trough, Cold Pool Expand Across The West; Southern Branch Storm, Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Late Week

METEOBLUE

ECMWF (4)

TrueWx.Com (4)

College Of DuPage Weather Laboratory (2)

It will take some time before the large disturbance and trough covering the Aleutian Islands and central Pacific Ocean will either displace, merge, or kick out the Gulf of Alaska vortex that today will create some precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Southwest flow ahead of the trough complex will not permit any hint of winter from reaching Texas, the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. These changes should come on and after Thanksgiving. Ridging over Alaska, the Arctic Islands and Greenland does not look stable which leads me to believe that the cold frontal push and subsequent air mass will be transient, likely to be gone from the country by the end of the first week of December.

I should also point out that the arrival of an intense subtropical jet stream storm and cold pool may set off a severe weather outbreak around November 20 - 22. The outlined area for intense convection most likely be in a swath from Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas through the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. The vigorous dynamics support tornadic supercells, as well as case for lail and torrential rainfall in a high travel period.