WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, November 1, 2025; MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK

[Larry Cosgrove]

SYNOPSIS

(Up To Four Weeks From Now)

 

A Mostly Mild October; Perhaps A Few Cold Interruptions In November

METEOBLUE

HPRCC/University Of Nebraska (2)

NCEP/CPC

NOHRSC (2)

ECMWF (5)

College Of Dupage Weather Laboratory

WeatherBell (4)

Except for cool air along both coasts, the temperatures in North America were generally mild to in some cases hot (Texas and High Plains). The warmer look and feel of the weather is borne out by the lack of snow and sea ice close to the continent (but the frozen precipitation did quite well in the Arctic Sea and the eastern/central portions of Russia). The ENSO signature will be hovering near or into moderate La Nina territory. So when I see the snow line fill out and creep into the Upper Midwest (with a more steady presence of a 500MB vortex in Ontario), then I will seriously talk about "Old Man Winter" reclaiming most of the lower 48 states.

That does not mean that no colder air will advance out of the West Coast or the Prairie Provinces this month or next. Most of the model guidance shows some increase in amplitude in the medium range, with a +PNA styled ridge in western North America, and a digging shortwave turning into a fairly deep (534dcm) closed low over Ontario and James Bay. Though not shocking/record cold (think lack of snow cover), there should be 3 or 4 days of air cold enough to support snow showers in the Great Lakes and Appalachia, and a relatively brief nocturnal cooling episode along the southern and eastern tier of the U.S. But look at the model weeklies and see the progression of warmth back to its familiar perch of the western and central theaters. I think that scenario will be repeated in December, too. But after the New Year, the shift of the combination Aleutian +Gulf of SAlaska vortices will make for some chances for snow at lower latitude.

Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Sunday, November 2, 2025 at 1:15 P.M. CT

Disclaimer: 
The previous statements are my opinions only, and should not be construed as definitive fact. Links provided on this newsletter are not affiliated with WEATHERAmerica and the publisher is not responsible for content posted or associated with those sites.

Copyright 2025 by Larry Cosgrove

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