WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, July 5, 2025; EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST

[Larry Cosgrove]

EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST

(Between Day 11 And Day 15)

 

The 2007 Analog Only Goes So Far; Tropical Moisture May Head Further West After Mid-Month

CIMSS (3)

WMO/GRAPES Beijing

TropicalTidbits.Com (Dr. Levi Cowan) (3)

NOAA/PMEL

NOAA/CMC

ECMWF

HPRCC/University Of Nebraska (2)

Environment Canada

ECMWF (3)

TropicalTidbits.Com (Dr. Levi Cowan) (5)

You might be thinking there are similarities to the bizarre summer of 2007 to the current season. That was the case of a constant 500MB weakness allowing repeated heavy thunderstorms to target Texas. The constant pulse of heavy rain created flood potential in central and east parts of the Lone Star State, erasing calls for searing heat in the major energy markets along the Interstate 10, 35, and 40 corridors. But the difference this year is that the gap between the Sonoran and Bermudan heat ridges is further west, and not as constant. If the Mexican monsoonal moisture fetch eventually erodes the Southwest ridging, we will see more widespread heat as the polar jet stream heads into its likely furthest-north position, along and above the Canadian border. The removal of an intense thunderstorm mechanism in late July and August, typical with a reforming La Nina, will enable the cTw+mTw regime to reach its greatest extent.

Consider the averages so far. I encountered many "coldest June ever" assertions on Memorial Day weekend. But the final result ranged from only a few cool pockets in the Great Plains, Upper Midwest and Deep South to a raging dry heat in the West, Corn Belt and Mid-Atlantic. There were some impressive thunderstorms in much of the lower 48 states to be sure, but the extreme intensity and extent of heat ridges across the Northern Hemisphere tells us that we are heading into a period of widespread heat in North America, Europe and of course Southwest Asia. The ECMWF version has performed superbly with temperature outlines in the near term and medium range, while the CFS series seems to be doing the best in the longer range and weeklies.

Of course, a tropical system in either the Pacific Basin or Atlantic theater could disrupt this hot "train of thought". But the scenario of expansion of hot air from East Texas and Louisiana and a broad impact of the Bermuda High into the Midwest and Eastern Seaboard seems the most probable course.

 

Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Saturday, July 5, 2022 at 11:35 P.M. CT

Disclaimer: 
The previous statements are my opinions only, and should not be construed as definitive fact. Links provided on this newsletter are not affiliated with WEATHERAmerica and the publisher is not responsible for content posted or associated with those sites.

Copyright 2025 by Larry Cosgrove

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