TODAY'S FUN LINKS: | | AZFamily - 6 January 2025A dry start to the new year, following a very dry 2024, is causing issues for businesses relying on the rain. |
|
|
|---|
|
| | European Southern Observatory - 21 January 2025Reaching speeds up to 33,000 kilometers per hour, the winds pummeling the equator of WASP-127b, a giant exoplanet, make up the fastest jet stream of its kind ever measured on a planet. |
|
|
|---|
|
| | Arizona State University - 23 January 2025 The new research shows that the microbes have a dual role in the carbon cycle and can either stabilize carbon for long-term storage or release it into the atmosphere as greenhouse gases. |
|
|
|---|
|
|
WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
Scattered Locations In
MT....WY....ID....SE BC
(Strong Winds; Pressure Gradient Derived; Orographic Influences)
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
Isolated Locations In
N, C CA
(QPF 1 - 2")
WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL
(potential for Moderate Icing, Snow 2 - 4" or more, and/or temperatures below 10 deg F)
Scattered Locations In
N AB....N, C MB....W, N ON
(Snow; 4 - 8")
Numerous Locations In
BC....AB....SK....MB....W, N ON....N, C QC....NL
(Intense Cold)
Isolated Locations In
C, E ON....SW QC....N, W NY....NW PA
(Snow; 4 - 8")
Scattered Locations In
S BC....WA....OR....N, C CA....Far N NV....ID....WY....S ND....MT....SW SK....S AB
(Snow; Blizzard; Mostly Above 3000 Feet; 4 - 24")
(a review of important weather features around the world)
IODC
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
You know, they say it can be a bad thing when a strong, broad subtropical jet stream interacts with a formative cA vortex. They might just be right....
If you look at energy in central Europe digging southeastward, and a vivid southern branch wind field, moisture laden, progressing form the Sahel and central Sahara Desert toward the Middle East, you get an unsettling feeling that some winter weather extremes may occur in the Levant, Persia, and Indus River watershed. The mean storm track at surface will probably be from the Sinai Peninsula into the Persian Gulf, then on into western India. If you look at precipitation maps, the freeze line and snow/ice transition drop very low in latitude (eg. snow may fall south of the Zagros next weekend). The presence of a string blocking high in Siberia is also important, because it will force southward transfer of a shortwave from the Danube Valley into the Caucasus and northern Persia, If the European scheme is correct, it will not warm up until the last week of February in southwestern Asia.
HIMAWARI 8
METEOBLUE; Kochi University
Just to be clear about something, the Madden-Julian Oscillation is not in position or organization to be a constant cold source for North America. If the convective clustering shifts into Phases 6,7, 8, and/or 1, and connects with the polar westerlies, then greater chances for cAk drainage will happen in both eastern Asia and central/eastern North America.
Very hot and dry conditions are seen in Australia. But the subcontinent is buffeted by tropical cyclone development on its northeast shore and to its west over the Indian Ocean. A frontal structure, meanwhile, has cleared New Zealand.
GOES WEST
NOAA/NESDIS
The twin demons of cold and storminess are on view on this image. The storm complex over the Gulf of Alaska will progress through the Pacific Northwest and southern Canada during the next five days. Snow impacts from British Columbia through the Intermountain Region will be tremendous, accompanied by strong winds that will be accented by orographic enhancement and convection as the low pressure slides along just below the International Border. Arctic air associated with a developing cAk vortex will conjoin with the general spread of tundra type air across the Prairie Provinces. This may be a repetitive process that, if the numerical models and analogs with previous years are correct, may prevail through much of February and March along and above the Interstate 80 and 90 corridors.
GOES EAST
NOAA/NESDIS
The storm track scenario in North America is from the Pacific Northwest to New England and the Maritime Provinces. Potential for heavy snow and bitter cold will occur along and north of the pathway, while mild to occasionally warm conditions are probable to the south.
Summer in South America features the most intense heat over Chile and Argentina. Further north, over Brazil and especially along the Amazon River watershed, frequent and heavy diurnal thunderstorms are seen. Note also the tropical wave approaching Recife Brazil.
METEOSAT
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
Europe has fallen into a somewhat segmented pattern with a more amplified upper air pattern that somewhat resembles that of spring. The most defined ridges are likely to be set up in France and Germany. Another anticyclone, a blocking signature, may prove quite durable over the Ural Range in Russia by next weekend. There are small disturbances moving through the Mediterranean countries which may greatly impact Turkey, the Caucasus, and the Middle East by the second week of this month.
Curiously, a vigorous subtropical jet stream is progressing across northern Africa. There is full linkage with equatorial moisture, a rarity in winter. When this dewpoint increase hits one of the storms moving into the Levant around February 8 - 9, risks for heavy precipitation will increase greatly. Much of southern Africa is very hot with high surface relative humidities but no real chance for rainfall.
