WEATHERAmerica Newsletter; Saturday, November 1, 2025

[Larry Cosgrove]

TODAY'S FUN LINKS:

Mosquitoes found in Iceland for first time after record heat

Hurricane Melissa death toll tops 50; 'apocalyptic' Caribbean damage.

University of Miami scientists launch accessible global climate modeling framework

 

WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)

 

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)

 

STRONG WINDS

(Pressure Gradient Derived)

MB....W, C ON....Upper MI

 

HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)

 

Isolated Locations In

Coastal BC

(QPF 1 - 3")

 

WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL

(potential for Moderate Icing, Snow 2 - 4" or more, and/or temperatures below 10 deg F)

 

Isolated Locations In

C SK....C MB....NW ON

(Snow; 4 - 8")

EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK

(Potential For Temperature To Exceed 95 deg F)

 

Isolated Locations In

S CA....S NV....AZ....NM....Far W TX

• 
  

GLOBAL WEATHER SUMMARY

(a review of important weather features around the world)

 

IODC

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT

 

Cool. Mild. Anything But HOT...

Even with ridging over the Levant and North Africa, west-northwest flow provides somewhat lower temperatures. The deep polar air mass is staying in Russia and the Central Asian Republics, probably for at least the next two weeks.While essentially a dry regime, there will be precipitation along and below/to the left of the inland water bodies (Black Sea, Caspian Sea, Aral Sea). Some frontal passages may align with moisture advection, creating a window for cool readings and dismal cloudy skies in parts of Turkey, Armenia, and northern Iran.

Which, when measured against relentless heat, still feels pretty good across southwestern Asia.

 

HIMAWARI 8

JTWC; METEOBLUE; Kochi University

 

TD Kalmeigi will go from being a minimal tropical storm to a Category 2 typhoon, crossing the Philippines just below Manila and then heading into Vietnam. This type or track scenario rules out major infiltration of energy and moisture into the polar westerlies. The rule of thumb is: for a cold snap in the central and eastern USA, a typhoon must take a recurvature and merge with the polar westerlies as the flow nears the Aleutian Islands. This clearly is not happening with the Kalmeigi circulation., and likely will also not occur with the probable follow-up depression which might take a path into Korea. Colder air is forming over Siberia, Mongolia and the PRC.

You can clearly see an elongated frontal structure crossing the Outback. The pattern of fronts passing through the subcontinent has not ended, despite the advancing calendar date which favors more control of ridging and warmer weather. Most likely this is a La Nina symptom, which is unlikely to fully stop until next winter as a weak El Nino episode may take shape.

 

GOES WEST

NOAA/NESDIS

 

There is a huge Gulf Of Alaska vortex, as well as an advancing Aleutians Island gyre with a deep moisture fetch in the eastern Pacific Ocean. This is an odd blend of ENSO climatology which can be looked at as a sign of an impending shift to neutral equatorial temperature field, which is what all of the numerical model outlines suggest. The cold northwestern states with precipitation expected in the new week may give way to warm/dry ridging as the two vortices merge, with the moisture field staying left of the West Coast.

 

GOES EAST

NOAA/NESDIS

 

The moisture surge from the Gulf of Mexico had enough buoyancy to allow for the formation  of severe thunderstorms in coastal TX on Saturday. But the upper air disturbance and weak thermal boundary are breaking down moving into Dixie, so another quiet and warm period is likely in the next 72 hours. Cold air is weakly represented in Canada and Greenland, which may minimize the chance that a storm and frontal structure in the medium range will supply a meaningful dose of deep polar air. Note also that the ITCZ has been quashed and low-latitude westerlies are in a position to shear apart any developing tropical waves or convective disturbances.

Most of South America is under a highly cumuliform, hot and humid atmosphere. There are few clusters of thunderstorms since a ridge complex dominates the northern half of the continent. It is worth noting that the same area that has been targeted by frontal thunderstorms over the past eight months (northern Argentina/Paraguay/Uruguay/southern Brazil) is dealing with intense convection once again.

 

METEOSAT SEVIRI

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT

 

With continued frontal passages and deep troughs passing through, Europe continues to see a warm to mild spectrum of temperatures. The next trough complex will target the subcontinent Tuesday and Wednesday, with little introduction of cooler air. The next and probably stronger cold front over Newfoundland will take a similar track, likely passing through from France and the UK into Russia by next weekend. This is still not a cold pattern for European interests.

Africa has a new pattern set-up with a particularly vast Saharan heat ridge and a suppressed ITCZ, which is joined by a rare modified Antarctic cold front with a moisture fetch from South Africa. Convection may be severe in isolated locations over the southern half of the continent in the next few days.