WEATHERAmerica Newsletter; Saturday, February 21, 2026; EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST

[Larry Cosgrove]

EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST

(Between Day 11 And Day 15)

March Forecast Is Turning Warmer For The Frozen North. Gradually.

NOHRSC (2)

CIMSS (2)

TropicalTidbits.Com (Dr. Levi Cowan) (3)

NOAA/PMEL

NOAA/CPC

IRI/Columbia University

HPRCC (University Of Nebraska) (2)

Environment Canada

WeatherBELL (9)

There is still a decent chance for another Arctic intrusion across the eastern two-thirds of the lower 48 states in the longer term. But truth be told, opportunities for high-latitude blocking will be lower, and the subtropical jet stream will be gaining latitude as the La Nina episode is now ascending into a negative-neutral ENSO signature, and should reach weak El Nino status in the 3.4 sector by May 1. I think we will end up with a higher-number weak, perhaps low-end moderate +ENSO signature this summer and fall. Which gives credence to the idea of the warmth and dryness in the Southwest overtaking the Desert and Intermountain regions and south central through the JJAS semester, much like 2023. With less chance for Atlantic Basin tropical cyclones and better odds on thunderstorm threats in the Midwest and Eastern Seaboard after Memorial Day.

But first things first. Week 2 will likely start out very cold to the right of the Rocky Mountains, and there could be an important storm that impacts Texas, the Great Plains, and the Front Range with heavy rain and higher elevation snow and wind (possibly a longwave/Colorado/Limon cyclone....). That system may start to break apart the colder air from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast. At the same time Californai should start to warm up after an initial chilly period. The longer term model guidance wants to bring the subtropical jet stream up into northern Mexico and the Gulf Coast in Weeks 3 and 4. If so the serious cold (Arctic) values will remain in Canada and the north central U.S. by mid-March.

Watch that southern branch wind field, as it presents opportunities for thunderstorms and heavy rainfall in much of Dixie, the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic. That would mean a dry and increasingly warm Southwest which, in time, could spread into Texas and the Heartland in early summer. But most importantly, readings should stay out of the "snow and cold" zone in the second half of next month. For many in the grip of the early week storm, such a forecast will be greatly appreciated.

 

Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Saturday, February 21, 2026 at 11:25 P.M. CT

Disclaimer: 
The previous statements are my opinions only, and should not be construed as definitive fact. Links provided on this newsletter are not affiliated with WEATHERAmerica and the publisher is not responsible for content posted or associated with those sites.

Copyright 2026 by Larry Cosgrove

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