WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, February 8, 2025; WEATHER EXTREMES And GLOBAL SATELLITE IMAGERY

[Larry Cosgrove]

WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)

 

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)

 

Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits

N LA....N MS....N AL....TN....NW GA....Upstate SC

 

HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)

 

Isolated Locations In

N LA....N MS....N AL....TN....NW GA....Upstate SC

(QPF 1 - 2")

 

WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL

(potential for Moderate Icing, Snow 2 - 4" or more, and/or temperatures below 10 deg F)

 

Numerous Locations 

Nearly ALL of Canada (except ON Peninsula)....NE WA....N, C ID....MT....ND....N SD....MN....N, C WI....N MI; N NY....N VT....N NH....N, C ME

Isolated Locations In 

SW QC....E ON....MI....N OH....N PA....NY (Not NYC, LI)....MA....VT....NH....S ME....NS

(Snow; 4 - 12")

Isolated Locations In

W NE....W KS

(Snow 3 - 6")

Isolated Locations In

AB....SK....MT....ID....W WY

(Snow; In Squalls; 4 - 8")

GLOBAL WEATHER SUMMARY

(a review of important weather features around the world)

 

IODC

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT

 

Just get rid of these upper level cutoff lows and we will be fine....????

If you had to blame the recent tendency for cold weather with liberal doses of stratiform rain, sleet and snow through the Middle East and Persia, look no further than the series of closed-off cPk disturbances that form in southeastern Europe, traverse Anatolia, dig into Iraq and Iran before recurving into the central Asian Republics. Rather heavy amounts of precipitation, quite a bit of ot frozen, will continue to target Turkey, the Caucasus, Kurdistan and Iran, with a gradual shift into Turkmenistan and Afghanistan. The chilly temperature profiles stretch from the Mediterranean countries through Persia and the Indus River watershed through next weekend. At that point, a cAk vortex will take shape across Siberia. Drier, and gradually warmer, profiles will set up mostly along and below 35 N Latitude by February 18.

 

HIMAWARI 8

METEOBLUE; Kochi University

 

You will note the prime emphasis of the Madden-Julian Oscillation is along and below the Equator. This is important, as the energy from tropical forcing moves into the Southern Hemisphere, and does not readily link with the polar westerlies. There are other mechanisms for cold delivery from the Arctic regions, but the MJO is generally thought of as the best way to achieve vortex/ridge/vortex configurations while it is intense, bulging north out of Phases 6, 7, 8 and 1. This is why the immense pool of bitter cold Arctic values across Canada and the northern tier of the USA will have only occasional success in reaching the bulk of the lower 48 states.

There are two named tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean, and a vigorous expression of convection across the northern third of Australia. This is close to seasonal climatology (The Wet), where the rest of the subcontinent turns dreadfully dry and hot. Even New Zealand is rather warm and dry, but this may change with a storm formation in Oceania.

 

GOES WEST

NOAA/NESDIS

 

With so much cold air in Canada, all it will take to get at least a temporary intrusion of Arctic values into the lower 48 states would be a large and intense storm from the Pacific Basin pushing along the middle latitudes and curving up the Atlantic shoreline. One of the systems portrayed here on satellite imagery may do the trick, particularly with a hook up from a rather strong surge in the subtropical jet stream (see it southwest of Mexico. The ridge connection into Alaska and the Arctic Islands is still strong enough to create a southward draft of the cAk regime that originates over the Northwest Territories and Nunavut AR. In the meantime, British Columbia and just about everywhere else above the Canadian border is in for a brutal display of cold that might stick around into March.

 

GOES EAST

NOAA/NESDIS

 

The southern 2/3 of the USA is mild to warm, but the states closest to Canada are enmeshed in a bitter cold air mass. Note the storm in the Mid-Atlantic, which will deepen on Sunday as it passes just below Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. There will be some chance of strong thunderstorms in the Southeast. Energy from the low pressure and cold front may bump into the established warm and humid air mass associated with the immense Greater Antilles/Sargasso Sea heat ridge complex. And no, it is not the "Southeast Ridge"!

The flare-ups of diurnal convection over central South America are tied to the presence of the ITCZ. A prominent wave from the discontinuity is moving into northeastern Brazil. Thunderstorms pockmark most of the continent, but clear, very hot and mostly dry conditions remain in place across Chile and Argentina.

 

METEOSAT

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT

 

The Scandinavian blocking ridge is undergoing retrogression. In fact, there will be a cAk vortex taking shape in the next 72 hours near Wrangel Island (Siberia) which will follow suit as 500MB heights rise dramatically in the -AO and -NAO positions. This "chain reaction" of these features shifting will allow for westward drift of the Siberian air into the European subcontinent and the British Isles over the next week or so. Storms associated with a deepening upper low in the subtropical jet stream should track through the Mediterranean countries, which will increase the risks for a late season snowfall  in Spain, Italy, and the Balkan Peninsula.

Africa is largely dry, with the exception of the trough across the Rift Valley/Nile Headwaters. The northern part of the continent will tend to cool somewhat as the southern branch is depressed from Europe, while the area from the Congo Basin to South Africa are expected to remain brutally hot.