WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, April 29, 2023 at 10:35 P.M. CT; Medium Range Forecast

[Larry Cosgrove]

MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK

(Four To Ten Days From Now)

 

Best Precipitation Chances Remain Over the West, Texas And The Northeast

UQAM Meteocentre (4)

TwisterData.Com (4)

TrueWx.Com (4)

College Of DuPage Weather Laboratory

In time, the cooler air over the western states and the Northeast will moderate. But the upper air pattern will contain pockets of cold air, with the result being sporadic, mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms. Orography may play a role in producing precipitation, but the inflow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, something resembling a false monsoon, will enable the strongest convection to occur over Texas and New Mexico. In the cool (not cold) air across the Mid-Atlantic and New England, sporadic afternoon and evening cloudbursts may contain small hail and very likely lightning. However, it must be emphasized that severe weather risks will be minimal outside of the space between the Interstate 25 and 45 corridors.

Strongest Warming Gets Stuck Over Florida, Texas, And The Great Plains

ECMWF (4)

PivotalWeather.Com (4)

If you are in a "craving heat" mood, you will not satisfy your desires looking at the medium range forecast maps. Enough ridging will be present in the Southwest, Texas and High Plains to create a "warm" scenario between May 5 and 10. But thunderstorms will get in the way of generating the kind of blazing sun that creates a genuine summer feel to this atmosphere. To get into a "hang out by the pool" mode, most likely you will have to wait until the second half of the month. That is when the magic words "heat ridge" and "subtropical high" might return to the lexicon of weather forecasting.