WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, April 11, 2026; WEATHER HAZARDS And GLOBAL SATELLITE IMAGERY

[Larry Cosgrove]

WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)

 

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)

 

ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms

(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)

C, N TX....SE OK....W AR

ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms

(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)

E MO....IL....NW IN....Lower MI.....S ON....S QC....N NY

 

HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)

 

Isolated Locations In

C, N TX....SE OK....W AR

(QPF 1 - 2")

Isolated Locations In

E MO....IL....NW IN....Lower MI.....E ON....W, S QC....N NY

(QPF 1 - 3")

Isolated Locations In

ID....W MT....W WY

(QPF 1 - 2")

 

WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL

(potential for Moderate Icing, Snow 2 - 4" or more, and/or temperatures below 10 deg F)

 

Isolated Locations In

WA....OR....N CA....N NV....UT.....ID....W WY....W MT

(Wet Snow; Above 4500 Feet; 4 - 16")

Isolated Locations In

W QC....N ON

(Wet Snow; 4-8")

GLOBAL WEATHER SUMMARY

(a review of important weather features around the world)

 

IODC

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT

 

The "Out Of Africa" moisture fetch has started up, and could batter Saudi Arabia and Iran in the near term. An upper low and trough from Anatolia and the eastern Mediterranean/Black Seas will enhance convective production as the energy from the disturbance comes up against a powerful heat ridge over the western Indian Ocean and South Asia. This again is tying in to the formative El Nino, with excruciating heat and drought from southeastern Persia through Pakistan and India that will not be pushed aside by the big convective response over the Middle East.

Note that the only truly Arctic air has retreated to eastern Siberia. The trough complex over the Caspian Sea will bring chilly nocturnal lows to the Caucasus and the Central Asia Republics during the new week.

 

HIMAWARI 8

METEOBLUE; Kochi University

 

Sinlaku could produce a major upheaval in the upper air configuration over North America in the 11-15 day period. As the Madden-Julian Oscillation finally drifts back to an incoherent state, Sinlaku will pass near Guam on a northwest track, then join the polar westerlies well east of Japan. Such an event is typically seen in late autumn, so the impacts on possible ridge building in Alaska and western Canada are likely to be somewhat muted. But the formation of  a warm West vs. cool East alignment is the most likely outcome, following a rather serious storm passage through the lower 48 states April 19 - 21. Since it could turn quite warm and unstable in the central/eastern portions of the nation before passage of the large cyclone, it figures that a broad severe weather response could again occur following the approaching threat in the middle of the new week.

It appears that the recent turn to dry and hot conditions in the Maritime Continent will be around for a while, since the peak warmth of the El Nino episode will not be until the coming autumn. But a new tropical cyclone could impact the far north of Australia soon.

 

GOES WEST

NOAA/NESDIS

 

That powerful storm sequence over the northern Pacific Basin means business! Each of the three impulses in the active 500MB flow will take a track through British Columbia and Washington, then on into western Quebec. In time, the miserable cold and damp/icy weather in the Prairie Provinces and Ontario will draw to a close, probably within a week or ten days, as the mP air mass should be dried and warmed crossing the Rocky Mountains. But keep in mind that while warmer values will prevail, the potential for a highly convective response (severe weather and flooding rains) will be plentiful in the middle of the new week, with a similar and possibly stronger storm event in the middle chamber of the U.S. around April 19 - 21.

 

GOES EAST

NOAA/NESDIS

 

While cold air is still an issue in Canada, the slow general trend in the USA is for moderation. The fair skies over the eastern third of the lower 48 states will also be embedded in a broad southwest flow aloft as a heat ridge takes shape along the Gulf Coast. Further west, the broad, cold trough across the Desert and Intermountain Regions will try to push eastward, producing intense thunderstorms that will build into a severe weather outbreak in Texas, the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Drying may be taking hold in South America. Evidence the clear sky in Chile and coastal Peru, with disorganized storms in the southeastern Pacific Basin unlikely to bring moisture above Tierra Del Fuego. Much of the northern half of half of the continent is hot with only isolated areas of diurnal convection.

 

METEOSAT SEVIRI

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT

 

This is why they call it "cutoff low season". As the jet stream winds decrease and cold pools close off and tend to linger, Europe sees areas of moderation with some alternation to chilly (not not extremely cold) temperatures. Indeed the model forecasts are very typical for April, lacking extremes in air masses but capable of heavy precipitation, which will be the case for Scandinavia as well as the Italian and Balkan Peninsulas. Readings will be below normal in North America thanks to proximity to the cold 500MB low.

Africa seems to be warming up and drying out. That could be tied to the coming of El Nino, with a hotter and drier regimen often seen continent wide in well-developed +ENSO environments. But there is meaningful rainfall in South Africa (upper low)as well as the Nile Headwaters, the start of the famed "Out Of Africa" fetch that will keep precipitation going in the Middle East and Iran.