TODAY'S FUN LINKS: | | Boulder's Winds Aren't What They Used to Be NCAR - 24 June 2025 According to a new BAMS Early Online Release article, peak wind gusts in Boulder have diminished from decades ago, when they often topped 120 mph and caused widespread structural damage. |
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| | Finding Consensus on Arctic Ocean Climate History Eos - 25 June 2025 Understanding the effects of a “blue” Arctic Ocean on future climate requires a coordinated effort to study Earth’s past warm periods using a variety of classical and cutting-edge methods. |
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WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
C TX
SCATTERED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
W, C ND....W, C SD....W, C NE....KS....C, S MO....W, C IL...SE WI....Lower MI....S ON....S QC....N VT....N NH....ME....N NB
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts. Isolated Tornadoes)
VA....NC....SC
Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits
S FL
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
C, E NM....C, E CO
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
Scattered Locations In
C TX
(QPF 1 - 5")
Scattered Locations In
W, C ND....W, C SD....W, C NE....KS....C, S MO....W, C IL...SE WI....Lower MI....S ON....S QC....N VT....N NH....ME....N NB
(QPF 1 - 6")
Isolated Locations In
VA....NC....SC
(QPF 1 - 4")
Isolated Locations In
C FL
(QPF 1 - 2")
Isolated Locations In
C, E NM....C, E CO
(QPF 1 - 3")
EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK
(Potential For Temperature To Exceed 95 deg F)
Scattered Locations In
CA (Away From Coast)....C, E OR....NV....UT....AZ....NM....W TX....W OK....Far W KS....CO....Far W NE....WY....C, S ID
Isolated Locations In
C, E TX....C, E OK....E KS....MO....S IA....IL....IN....S Lower MI....ON Peninsula....OH....WV....KY....TN....AR....LA....MS....AL....FL....GA....SC....NC....VA....DC....MD....DE....NJ....PA
NY....CT....RI....VT....NH....ME
(a review of important weather features around the world)
IODC
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
The "Broken Record" forecast....
This is the hottest time of the year in the Northern Hemisphere, and a stroll outside in the Middle East or southwestern/central Asia will remind you that it is easily the most dangerous. There is little chance for meaningful rainfall (although the South Asia monsoon may inch westward into Pakistan and southeastern Iran). The heat ridge complex is very intense, and is oriented in such a way as to take the driest air from regional deserts and spread the cTw air mass far to the northeast into Mongolia and western/northern China. A cold trough pushing through Europe and into Russia maintains that flow access. This set-up will run virtually non-stop until the second week of September. Horrific heat is a certainty for the Arabian Peninsula (yes, UAE and Kuwait, this means you), Persia and Afghanistan.
It's brutal. But it's life in this part of the world in summer.
HIMAWARI 8
METEOBLUE; Kochi University
The very chaotic look of the satellite image of the Indian and western/central Pacific Basins has two small tropical storms included (Danas and Mun). with a broad array of convective weather from beyond the International Dateline all the way back to the Indus River. The inflow of this moisture (with an incoherent Madden-Julian Oscillation not an influence), is headed into a particularly strong storm sequence in the Aleutian Islands and Gulf of Alaska. That action could build a ridge into the Pacific Northwest, with expectations of heat in BC, WA and OR vs. a weak upper low into California.
Strong cold fronts of Antarctic origin continue to progress through Australia and New Zealand. Note the particularly impressive boundary over the eastern third of the subcontinent, and another closed system approaching from the southwest.
GOES WEST
METEOBLUE; NOAA/NESDIS
There are candidate systems for tropical cyclone development near and below Mexico, but neither is expected to become a threat to heavily populated areas.
If not for a small upper low and trough west of California, the raging heat of the Desert Regions would reach the populous US 101/Interstate 5 corridors. But the discontinuity is helping to set up marine layer advection along the Pacific shoreline, and will do so for the next few days. There may be a time in the new week, however, where the Sonoran heat ridge expands to include the Bay Area CA and Los Angeles/San Diego metros and sends temperatures soaring to near-record levels. Most of the cTw air mass will translate eastward, however, as there could be a linkage with the Bermuda High in the medium range.
GOES EAST
NOAA/NHC; NOAA/NESDIS
Tropical Storm Chantal will briefly move inland along the North Carolina shoreline on Sunday, then get sheared apart and move northeastward out to sea. There could be waterspout issues in and around the Outer Banks, but this feature will be short-lived.
Tragically, the prevailing 500MB weakness over Texas has allowed more mesoscale convective complexes to form along and west of the Interstate 35 corridor. This will be a tough period through the middle of next week as bursts of thunderstorms with heavy rain will target flooded areas. In addition, rising temperatures will occur over locations with compromised power grids. The tendency for hot and dry air across the West to merge with the very warm and humid regime in the eastern half of the nation favors a high cooling demand sequence in much of the lower 48 states.
A broad tropical wave of ITCZ origin is crossing through Colombia. This feature may give rise to a tropical cyclone in the equatorial Pacific Basin. Much of South America is dry below the Amazon Basin, but an intense cold trough approaching Chile and Peru may give rise to mountain snows and heavy rainfall in Argentina, Paraguay and Bolivia within the next week or so.
METEOSAT
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
A broad polar jet stream with embedded shortwaves has largely eliminated the warmth across northern Europe. The disturbance over the northern Atlantic Ocean will broaden and cool considerably by Tuesday, bringing relatively cool weather across the British Isles and Scandinavia and introducing severe weather chances from the Danube Valley through the Italian and Balkan Peninsulas by the middle of the new week. Note that Spain, Greece and Turkey will remain hot; eventually the trough will lift out into Russia and the Ukraine.
The Saharan heat ridge is exporting hot, dry and dusty air westward into the Atlantic Ocean, which for now is eliminating development of the waves moving off of the equatorial African continent. But the ITCZ is quite well-developed, with impressive thunderstorm formation and a lead MCS passing just south of the Cape Verde Islands. It will not be long before we see the start of the "CV Season". Boxed in from the south by the Kalahari heat ridge, which is suppressing the northward advance of an Antarctic Low below the nation of South Africa.
