WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, April 15, 2023; Medium Range Outlook

36 views
Skip to first unread message

Larry Cosgrove

unread,
Apr 16, 2023, 12:34:18 AM4/16/23
to weather...@googlegroups.com
MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK
(Four To Ten Days From Now)
 
Yet Another Thunderstorm Event As Cold And Warm Air Clash Over The Mid-Continent
image.png
image.png
image.png
image.png
UQAM Meteocentre (4)
image.png
image.png
image.png
image.png
TwisterData.Com (4)
image.png
image.png
image.png
image.png
TrueWx.Com (4)
image.png
image.png
College Of DuPage Weather Laboratory (2)

The impact of next week's storm looks to be greater than that of the near term, but with less snowfall in its cold sector. While most forecast guidance shows a broad and deep colder air mass behind the low pressure as it takes the familiar track from the Texas Panhandle into Michigan, I suspect that this representation of the regime is somewhat overdone. There is no Arctic air involved, rather a blend of the Pacific Basin and Alaska values. Which, given the sun angle involved, should modify by the time it reaches the East Coast around April 22. As can be seen on the attached precipitation maps, risks for severe weather will be higher and probably more widespread than that of this weekend.

Polar Air Mass Takes Over Eastern Half Of The Nation By April 25
image.png
image.png
image.png
image.png
ECMWF (4)
image.png
image.png
image.png
image.png
PivotalWeather.Com (4)

The storm complex that targets the middle chamber of the U.S. next weekend will help to create a trough complex over the eastern half of the continent during the medium range. Other disturbances will dig in from the northwest to maintain the trough, but all will lack Arctic qualities. The potential for cloudiness and convection will be a key factor in depressing temperatures. But as time wears on, less impact on afternoon readings will be felt through the southern half of the nation, as increasing sun angle and lack of forcing will aid in enabling sunshine-induced warming.
Reply all
Reply to author
Forward
0 new messages