WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, January 31, 2026; GLOBAL SATELLITE IMAGERY And WEATHER EXTREMES

[Larry Cosgrove]

WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)

 

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)

 

STRONG WINDS

(Pressure Gradient Derived)

Coastal NC, VA, MD, DE, NJ, LI NY, RI, MA, NH, ME, NS

 

HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)

 

Isolated Locations In

Coastal OR, WA, BC

(QPF 1 - 2")

 

WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL

(potential for Moderate Icing, Snow 2 - 4" or more, and/or temperatures below 10 deg F)

 

Isolated Locations In

W ON....MN....N OH

(Snow; In Squalls; 2-4")

Isolated Locations In

NC Outer Banks, Cape Cod MA

(Snow; Near Blizzard; 3 - 6")

Numerous Locations In

SC....NC....TN....KY....WV....VA....DC....MD....DE....NJ....PA....OH....IN....MI....ON....QC....NY....CT....RI....MA....VT....NH....ME....NB....NS....PEI

(Intense Cold)

GLOBAL WEATHER SUMMARY

(a review of important weather features around the world)

 

IODC

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT

 

With two major cold vortoices across  northern Eurasia, you would think that the storm sequence moving east from Europe would perhaps pull the Arctic air into the Middle East and Iran. The disturbances are strong, and the lead impulse is predicted to target the stretch from the Mediterranean Sea through western Pakistan during the medium range. But none of the model guidance shows an advance of the Arctic values past the Caucasus or the south shore of the Caspian Sea. Ultimately, the Persian Gulf/Arabian Peninsula should escape the drop in temperature. But thunderstorms and high-elevation snow will take shape from February 4 - 7, especially if a moisture channel opens up from the Nile Headwaters and the Red Sea.

 

HIMAWARI 8

METEOBLUE; Kochi University

 

There is a fairly impressive Madden-Julian Oscillation signature in the Phases 4 - 6 position, and the convective field is connected to the polar westerlies across the western and central Pacific Basin. This linkage should be strong enough to cause a buld-up of energy in the storm complexes beneath the Aleutian Islands in the 6-10 day period, which disagrees with the latest GFS model suite idea of a vast warm-up across North America. Bitter cold air may fill in across East Asia, with some of the cAk domain in Siberia perhaps moving across the North Pole.

A frontal structure is shown draped across Australia and into southern New Zealand. This feature may create some opportunity for thunderstorms, with a slight temperature drop in both nations. Note the formative tropical cyclones nearest the Equator. The Australian circulation will bring heavy rainfall to the northwest corner of the subcontinent, while risk for a dangerous weather impact exists in Oceania.

 

GOES WEST

NOAA/NESDIS

 

I am cautious about forecasts for extended, extreme warmth in the lower 48 states, simply because two giant mAk motherlodes below the Aleutian Islands are making little eastward progress, and the +PNA ridge complex across the West is stationary and seems unlikely to shift eastward. This remains a warm West vs. cold Central/East alignment. But there could be a transition to a milder realm from the Great Plains to the East for a time late in the new week. Note also the subtropical jet stream, which has a connection to the MJO and is aimed toward Mexico. This feature represents a threat to the southern and eastern tiers of the USA with high precipitation amounts and an incentive for cold air drainage into the lower 48 states in the 11-15 day range.

 

GOES EAST

NOAA/NESDIS

 

The coastal storm off of the Carolinas is indeed spectacular, fueled by tropical moisture and energy from below Panama, and a brisk, bitter cold flow from far northern Canada. A cold vortex in Ontario and Quebec will keep brutal cold temperatures in place from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and New England through next weekend.

Easterly waves are pulsing across the Amazon Basin into the Andes Range. The second in the series is midway through Brazil and should escalate rain chances into the Pacific shoreline above Arica Chile. The southern half of South America is mostly blazing hot.

 

METEOSAT/SEVIRI

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT

 

The active southern stream and polar westerlies across Europe tell of a pattern that will feature a good deal of precipitation and cool, but mostly not cold, temperatures. A vortex over Scandinavia and Russia will continue a slow eastward progression, while the active Atlantic storm sequence favors repeated cases of precipitation, with snow chances higher across elevated areas. Note that northern Africa usually dodges the convective threats over the Mediterranean countries, which may play a big role in weather for the Levant and Persia.

ITCZ related rainfall and thunderstorms are quite strong, but very far south of normal from the Congo Basin into Kenya and Tanzania. The Kalahari heat ridge is well outlined in the southern third of Africa.