WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Sunday, February 15, 2026; EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST

[Larry Cosgrove]

EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST

(Between Day 11 And Day 15)

 

Waiting For Spring? Arctic Air, A Deep Storm/Trough Will Create Delays And Dashed Hopes In Much Of The USA

CIMSS (2)

NOHRSC (2)

TropicalTidbits.Com (Dr. Levi Cowan) (3)

NOAA/PMEL

NOAA/CPC

ECMWF

HPRCC/University Of Nebraska (2)

Environment Canada

WeatherBell (9)

If you look at weather since December 1, you can see a pattern of string warm-ups in the West and central portions of the nation vs. bitter cold intrusions that organize in the Prairie Provinces through the Mississippi Valley and points eastward. Bursts of mild to warm air have been erased by strong winter storms. The sign of these changes has been short periods of important precipitation and high winds with shortwaves that dig southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska into the West, then merge with impulses in the southern branch that ride from Mexico, below the Gulf Coast, and in some fashion up along the Eastern Seaboard.

I suspect that the general pattern will repeat itself as we ease out of February into March. We have another massive cold dome formation in Alaska and western Canada that pushes first into the West Coast and Intermountain Region. One or two shortwaves may drop through the Great Lakes and off of the coastline of the Mid-Atlantic, either delaying warming there or locking in a chilly temperature array above the Ohio Valley and Potomac River. Warmth will hold in parts of the Deep South, Texas and the Heartland until such time as the three jet streams phase in response to a lower-latitude storm. Interestingly many of the ensemble members create a "winter finale" system just above the Yucatan Peninsula that could drag down an abundance of Arctic air into the central/eastern USA. In short, I think the time between now and March 14 is going to offer some challenging weather to the lower 48 states.

In another matter, La Nina is starting to vanish. The vibrant subtropical jet stream and cold vortices below the Aleutian Islands and the Gulf of Alaska will soon start to edge northward. We will probably see an El Nino signal in ENSO 3.4 around June 1. But I caution that the CFS and ECMWF predictions of a strong El Nino by Labor Day seems overdone. I think we end up by next fall with a weak/moderate positive hydrothermal anomaly in the equatorial Pacific Basin, almost a complete flip from the winter ENSO signal. The tendency for dryness and recurrent warmth may mean a quick return to summer-like conditions in a bracket from California to Texas/Louisiana this summer, with decreased chances for precipitation in that arc by Memorial Day. The rest of the nation, if analogs and climatology hold true, wil be facing near to slightly below normal readings and much better chances for thunderstorms. As for the tropical system potential, I concur with NOAA outlooks that suggest less in the way of hurricane threats, especially after Labor Day.

"More Later".....

 

Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Sunday, February 15, 2026 at 1:45 P.M. CT

Disclaimer: 
The previous statements are my opinions only, and should not be construed as definitive fact. Links provided on this newsletter are not affiliated with WEATHERAmerica and the publisher is not responsible for content posted or associated with those sites.

Copyright 2026 by Larry Cosgrove

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