WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, February 14, 2026; WEATHER HAZARDS, GLOBAL SATELLITE IMAGERY

[Larry Cosgrove]

TODAY'S FUN LINKS:

The Future of NCAR Remains Highly Uncertain Yale Climate Connections - 30 January 2026 Attendees of the AMS Annual Meeting were briefed about ongoing developments on the future of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which the White House has said it will break up. Texas A&M Research Identifies Steps to Strengthen Extreme Weather Damage Reporting and Improve Counties’ Disaster Reimbursement Texas A&M University - 29 January 2026 At the AMS Annual Meeting, researchers presented new findings showing how local governments can improve storm-damage reporting so losses are documented clearly and in ways that strengthen eligibility for disaster assistance.   Salt Lake City Has Been Outsnowed by Florida. Really. Weather Underground - 3 February 2026 With only a trace of snowfall during the month, Salt Lake City was less snowy in January than many Southern cities, including Atlanta, Dallas, and even Marianna, Florida. Tornado-Forecast System Can Increase Warning Lead Times, Study Finds The University of Kansas - 27 January 2026 A Weather and Forecasting study shows that the NSSL’s Warn-on-Forecast System has potential to help weather forecasters issue warnings to emergency managers and the general public well before tornado formation. Weather Influencers Are Going Viral. How Much Should We Trust Them? South Carolina Public Radio - 23 January 2026 An increasingly popular genre of social media weather accounts share information leading up to extreme weather and then livestream for their viewers—but it spans a wide range of sources, from amateurs with no science background to accredited meteorologists. Wildfire Smoke Linked to 17,000 Strokes Annually in the United States Eos - 27 January 2026 A study of 25 million Medicare participants adds to a body of evidence suggesting that prolonged exposure to wildfire smoke is more harmful to human health than other forms of air pollution. Paralyzing Winter Storms Put a Big Chill on the U.S. Economy, but How Much? The Associated Press - 26 January 2026 Economists and meteorologists are trying to get a handle on the disruption costs of winter weather disasters, which aren’t as easy to calculate as buildings destroyed by hurricanes, floods, and fires. Sea Levels Are Rising—But in Greenland, They Will Fall Columbia University - 26 January 2026 According to a new study, the decline in sea level will likely measure about 0.9 meters (nearly 3 feet) in a low-emissions future and 2.5 meters (8.2 feet) in a high-emissions future by the year 2100. California’s Iconic Highway 1 Is Fighting a Losing Battle against Climate Change. Can It Survive? (may require subscription) Los Angeles Times - 27 January 2026 As officials grapple with mounting repair costs, questions loom about whether the iconic 650-mile highway can sustainably withstand increasingly severe climate impacts. Scientists Solve Mystery of How Earth's Greenhouse Age Ended University of Southampton - 22 January 2026 A new study has revealed that Earth’s massive drop in temperature after the dinosaurs went extinct could have been caused by a large decrease in calcium levels in the ocean. Mountain Snow and Water Forecasting Tool Developed by WSU Researchers Washington State University - 27 January 2026 The new tool could someday provide daily or weekly forecasts of water availability in the mountains similar to a weather forecast that agencies could use for important water management decisions.

 

WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)

 

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)

 

ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms

(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)

N FL...GA

 

HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)

 

Isolated Locations In

S, C AL....N FL....GA....SC....NC....VA

(QPF 1 - 3")

 

WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL

(potential for Moderate Icing, Snow 2 - 4" or more, and/or temperatures below 10 deg F)

 

Isolated Locations In

E KY....WV....W, C MD....DC....N VA

(Snow, Sleet; 2 - 4")

Isolated Locations In

N CA Coastal Ranges

(Snow, 4 - 12")

Scattered Locations In

MB....ON....QC

(Intense Cold)

GLOBAL WEATHER SUMMARY

(a review of important weather features around the world)

 

IODC

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT

 

So...Is Winter Really Over In The Middle East And Persia?

Arctic vortices are in Europe and Russia, and are looking to stay there.

Unless you are living in elevated areas or above 35 N Latitude, apparently yes. The near-term precipitation potential is decent in Iran and Afghanistan with a shortwave minoring out in the Caucasus. An expected build-up of ridging across southwestern Asia may get broken down/pushed out in the 6-10 day period, but the next storm system coming in from Europe (which is large and cold, by the way) is destined to follow a track north of the Levant into the Central Asian Republics. Snow levels will rise over the next ten days, and precipitation chances will be limited below Kurdistan and northern Iran. There is the possibility, with an El Nino expected to start forming, of an "Out Of Africa" subtropical jet stream formation that would increase moisture advection across the region. But this feature is not evident now, and does not show up through the end of the month on analog and numerical model representations.

I am very concerned about heat and dryness from the eastern Mediterranean Sea and North Africa into the Indus Valley as we look ahead toward summer.

 

HIMAWARI 8

METEOBLUE; Kochi University

 

Despite projections of a Phase 6-8-1 settlement of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, evidence on satellite suggests that MJO has settled southward in an incoherent, full-longitude manner. So after giving a boost to the giant double-vortex trough complex in the northern and eastern portions of the Pacific Basin, the oscillation is now focused below the Equator with three tropical systems and a rather explosive rain/thunder array in northern Australia, known as "The Wet". A cold pool has slipped southward, just grazing New Zealand, while hot weather dominates the southern half of the Australian subcontinent.

See also the very well-defined boundary of the Arctic air mass into northern China into Tibet.

 

GOES WEST

NOAA/NESDIS

 

The broad area of storminess across the northern Pacific Ocean will soon be impacting North America. Keep in mind that the numerical models have had extreme trouble in locating systems and forecasting future motion and intensity, which is why the 6-10 and 11-15 day predictions will be watched carefully. The front part of the disturbed weather will assume a vortex structure, and settle over British Columbia and Alberta/Saskatchewan, which raises the specter of a major cold wave in those provinces. The subtropical jet stream should track across northern Mexico, so chances for a storm formation in Texas will increase around February 20 - 24. Further west, we could see the formation of a sub-Aleutian vortex, which may start to dry and warm the western third of the continent in the 11-15 day range and perhaps force the bitter cold gyre in western Canada into the lower 48 states.

 

GOES EAST

NOAA/NESDIS

 

The storm moving out of West Texas is quite a bit stronger than what recent numerical model profiles had suggested. Besides the ongoing severe weather risk emerging out of the Lone Star State through Dixie, there is a fair chance this feature could set up a snow and sleet event of some magnitude in middle Appalachia into the Interstate 95 corridor from Providence RI to Arlington VA on Sunday night and Monday. Much of southern Canada is still quite cold, buyt the lower 48 states has seen some moderation in temperature as well as erasure of the snowpack outside of the Northeast and the Intermountain Region.

There is a huge ITCZ wave moving through the upper Andes Range, followed by three smaller, but still strong, tropical impulses in the Amazon Basin. Frontal structures are now breaking through Chile and Argentina, with cooler air and isolated showers and thunderstorms reaching into southernmost Brazil.

 

METEOSAT

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT

 

In Europe, it looks like winter is making a comeback of sorts. Besides the current  disturbance centered over Switzerland and northern Italy, a full-latitude cyclone in the northern Atlantic Ocean will turn southeast as the circulation approaches a blocking ridge signature in Scandinavia. The trough complex will cover much of the subcontinent, allowing for the freeze line to drift down into the Mediterranean countries and setting the edge of the snowpack as low as 40 N Latitude.

Curiously, the visible southern branch across the Sahara Desert has vanished. Often associated with El Nino, and giving dry locations in Africa and Asia a chance to see plentiful rainfall before the hot summer months, the lack of this feature implies risks of drought and excessive heat in the second half of Spring as well as the JJA semester. Hot, humid weather with diurnal convection (and a rogue ITCZ circulation moving out of Nigeria) is the rule from the Congo Basin and Nile Headwaters through South Africa.