WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, April 6, 2024; WEATHER EXTREMES And GLOBAL SATELLITE DISCUSSION

[Larry Cosgrove]

WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)

 

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)

 

Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits

E TX....E OK....SE KS....SW MO....W AR....NW LA

 

HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)

 

Isolated Locations In

NE Panhandle....SW SD

(QPF 1 - 2")

 

WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL

(potential for Moderate Icing, Snow 2 - 4" or more, and/or temperatures below 10 deg F)

 

Isolated Locations In

N CO....C, E WY...NE Panhandle....W SD....SW ND....S MT

(Wet Snow; 4 - 10")

Isolated Locations In

E AB....N, C MT....ID....N NV

(Wet Snow; Above 4000 Feet; 4 - 10")

GLOBAL WEATHER SUMMARY

(a review of important weather features around the world)

 

IODC

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT

 

Upper air disturbances keep the temperature down while triggering (lots of) precipitation.

Such is the case for the Middle East, Caucasus, and Persia for the next ten days. The rain (or snow) will not be a constant, but rather occur in bunches or in a diurnal+orographic manner. There is near complete agreement among the various schemes on maintaining the "Out of Africa" moisture fetch (originating in the Nile Headwaters) and interacting with various disturbances aloft that tend to lodge over Kurdistan or the lower Caspian Sea. In warmer sections like the lower Tigris/Euphrates watershed and southern Iran, intense convection will be a recurrent concern, with hail and tornado threats. Higher elevations in northern and western Iran into Georgia and northern Iraq will see extreme snowfall rates,

To repeat, in time the heat ridge complex will retrogress/expand out of South Asia and the Arabian Sea. But that shift is about a month away, so in the meantime be careful navigating flooded roads or avalanches in the mountainous areas. Temperatures in most of the Levant eastward to Afghanistan and Pakistan will mostly feature cool nights and mild days.

 

HIMAWARI 8

METEOBLUE; Kochi University

 

The Madden-Julian Oscillation is regrouping over Indonesia, with some branching as an influence for subtropical jet stream development in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. See also the tropical cyclone off the coast of northwestern Australia. Much of the subcontinent has quieted down now that a frontal structure has moved off of the eastern Australian shoreline. An impressive Kelvin waveeast of New Guinea may migrate east of the International Dateline within the next two days.

A broad trough covers eastern Asia and the western Pacific Basin. This feature will maintain cool weather across much of the PTC and Japan, while at the same time pumping up a ridge, with warmer weather, in western North America in the 11-15 day range.

 

GOES WEST

NOAA/NESDIS

 

There are two immense storms visible in the eastern half of the Pacific Ocean, with a sharply defined southern branch jet stream about to phase with these systems. Risks for a major amount of precipitation are rising for much of the USA, with particular emphasis in the south central U.S. into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The difference this time is that there will be no Arctic air induction into the disturbances, which will reduce snow amounts across the Intermountain Region and High Plains. A breakaway system will reach the middle Missouri Valley on Sunday, with the two other systems impacting the USA in the new week.

 

GOES EAST

NOAA/NESDIS

 

Already there are signs of a low-level jet stream and moisture feed from the western Gulf of Mexico into Texas, which could be an influence on trying to watch the solar eclipse on Monday in the south central USA. A storm off of the Northeast shoreline is far weaker than was projected by the numerical models. A significant amount of air skies and mild weather is visible from the High Plains into Appalachia. Note also the subtropical jet stream in Mexico into the Gulf waters.

Yet another large MCS has developed across northern Argentina, continuing a pattern seen during the summer for heavy rain and strong thunderstorms in that vicinity. Diurnal convection occurs across northern South America.

 

METEOSAT

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT

 

The massive cold storm (dubbed "Kathleen" by European weather interests" will have marginal impacts as it breaks apart, and regroups over the Danube Valley and Balkan Peninsula in the near term. The moisture fetch of the cyclone is impressive, so dangers for excessive Precipitation will shift from the Italian Peninsula into eastern Europe by Tuesday. Another northern Atlantic Ocean cyclone will target the British Isles in early week.

An important development in equatorial Africa is the massive mesoscale wave in the center of the continent. If disturbances such as this keep developing into summer as part of an ITCZ perturbation, we could be headed for more Atlantic Basin hurricane threats to the major islands and North America. Also note the frontal structure with heavy thunderstorms from South Africa into Mozambique.