TODAY'S FUN LINKS: | | Dismantling of US Federal Agencies Will "Destroy Science" Nature - 3 November 2025 Agency scientists speak out about the irreplaceable facilities, institutional knowledge, and training opportunities that the country is losing due to cuts the Trump administration has made to federal agency science. |
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| | How Hard Is It to Dim the Sun? Columbia University - 21 October 2025 Proponents of the form of solar geoengineering known as stratospheric aerosol injection dramatically underestimate just how difficult and complicated it will be, researchers say. |
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| | Regional Ocean Dynamics Can Be Better Emulated with AI Models University of California, Santa Cruz - 8 October 2025 Research presents new AI-powered methods for modeling the Gulf of Mexico that achieve higher accuracy than traditional models for short-term predictions and successfully emulate 10-year dynamics without any AI “hallucination." |
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| | Taking to the Skies to Track Urban Air Quality NCAR - 29 October 2025 This past summer, researchers aimed not only to get a better picture of the air in and around New York City, but how pollution ebbs and flows there throughout a 24-hour time period. |
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| | The Conversation - 29 October 2025Accurate forecasts of Melissa’s turn to the northeast gave many people across Jamaica, Cuba, and the eastern Bahamas extra time to evacuate to safer areas before the hurricane headed their way. |
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| | How Climate-Damaging Nitrous Oxide Forms in the Ocean University of Basel - 30 October 2025 Marine microorganisms produce large amounts of nitrous oxide, a highly potent greenhouse gas, and a researcher investigated the exact processes involved during an expedition to the Pacific. |
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WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes
FL Peninsula
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
NJ....E NY (Including NYC, LI)....CT....RI....MA....VT....NH....ME
STRONG WINDS
BC....AB
Pressure Gradient Derived, Orographic Enhancement)
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
Scattered Locations In
NJ....E NY....CT....RI....MA....VT....NH....ME
(QPF 1 - 3")
Isolated Locations In
FL Peninsula
(QPF 1 - 3")
Scattered Locations In
Coastal BC
(QPF 1 - 5")
WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL
(potential for Moderate Icing, Snow 2 - 4" or more, and/or temperatures below 10 deg F)
Scattered Locations In
MI Snowbelts; ON Peninsula; S, C QC....N ME
(Snow; In Squalls; 4 - 12")
Isolated Locations in
WI....Upper MI....C ON
(Bitter Cold)
Scattered Locations In
BC Coastak Ranges
(Snow; 4 - 36"; Blizzard)
Isolated Locations In
Far NW ON
(Snow; 4 - 8")
(a review of important weather features around the world)
IODC
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
Slowly, we see the winter pattern coming together.
The active colder pattern across Eurasia should come together over the next three weeks. More chances for cold and snow both in the European subcontinent as well as Siberia into the Central Asian Republics, balanced by a heat ridge across South Asia. Use the Himalayan Rim as a boundary between the two. So while most of November will likely be dry and relatively mild/warm across Iraq and Iran, increasing precipitation chances will be unveiled early next month. In time there will likely be a breakthrough of the cold through Persia and into Saudi Arabia, with chances for mountain snow and significant rainfall in lower elevations.
HIMAWARI 8
JTWC; METEOBLUE; Kochi University
Not the strongest typhoon to hit the Philippines. But Fung-Wong will prove to be deadly and quite memorable.
The storm should engulf most of the northern half of the archipelago by Sunday evening, the eye cutting a path about 40 miles north of Manila with 115 knot winds. Exiting through northwest Luzon Island on Monday morning, a shearing southwest flow ahead of a 500MB trough over Vietnam and mainland China will induce weakening as the tropical cyclone aims at western Taiwan. The general southwest flow across eastern Asia and the western Pacific Basin may amplify if the tropical wave complex entering the Mariana Islands steers into the polar westerlies, which are attached to a giant coild storm in the Aleutian Islands.
Note that the Madden-Julian Oscillation remains incoherent, with clusters in Phases 3 and 5. This is still not favorable for widespread warm?cold advection set -ups across North America, and also remains detached from storms and frontal structures which continue to traverse Australia and New Zealand with inclement weather.
GOES WEST
METEOBLUE; NOAA/NESDIS
Take close watch of the equatorial moisture axis below Mexico and Hawaii. This feature is not going away, and may serve as a moisture linkage to the Gulf of Alaska and Aleutian vortices. Keep in mind that as we move into the winter season, that repetitive storm complex will eject strong disturbances toward northern Mexico and Texas (possibly resembling a Kona Low). The Pacific Northwest, especially British Columbia will see torrential rain, heavy mountain snow, and strong winds on Sunday and Monday, with the first system in this series drying out as it reaches the Prairie Provinces.
GOES EAST
The Weather Channel; NOAA/NESDIS
In broadcast and social media, all you hear about is the coming "Arctic Outbreak" that supposedly will freeze the entire lower 48 states in the new week. OK, the time is now for a reality check. This is a transient deep polar (cPk) air mass following an "Alberta Clipper". The duration will be short, as the upper flow with its full-latitude trough flattens out by Wednesday afternoon. But there should be some stronger snow squalls across the Great Lakes and Appalachian Mountains as the deep upper low (easily seen on the GOES EAST image) spreads south and east. Warm and dry conditions over the West will be returning to areas east of the Mississippi River later in the new week.
Warmth across the northern half of South America will be slow to return to Chile and Argentina. There are still more storms and frontal progressions off of the Pacific Ocean, with heavy rain and thunderstorms again featured into Paraguay, Uruguay, and southern Brazil.
METEOSAT
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
Upper Lows in the Atlantic Ocean indicate a pattern change for much of Europe and Asia.
The monster trough and upper disturbance to the west of the subcontinent is on the move east, and in the process will deeply alter the 500MB flow signature. Temperatures are forecast to drop below freezing (at least nocturnally) across the northern half of the European Union. Most of the longer term and analog forecasts are showing a triplet of cold pools above 45 N Latitude, with the snow cover slowly increasing (especially in Russia).
The ITCZ is basically corrupt and suppressed to the south of the Equator in Africa. A new development is the expansion of a trough in the southern Atlantic Ocean. Tropical moisture is increasing from the Congo Basin through Mozambique into South Africa, and we could see a turn toward very wet conditions in Zambia and Zimbabwe into the Nile Headwaters over the following 10 days. Note also the ongoing warmth and dryness of the Sahel and the Sahara Desert.
