WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Sunday, March 8, 2026; EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST

[Larry Cosgrove]

EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST

(Between Day 11 And Day 15)

 

Cold May Linger In Canada And North Central States, But Warmer Air Should Start To Build Nationally By The Equinox

CIMSS (2)

NOHRSC (2)

TropicalTidbits.Com (Dr. Levi Cowan) (3)

NOAA/PMEL

NOAA/CPC

ECMWF

HPRCC (2)

Physical Sciences Lab/WEATHERAmerica (2)

Environment Canada

WeatherBELL (9)

I will start off by saying that winter 2025-26 could have one last trick up its sleeve. Not a sure thing, but notice that about three of the longer term numerical models have a trough and cold pocket that crosses through the Midwest/Great Lakes into Appalachia, then northeast to Nova Scotia. The key factor: does the heat ridge in Mexico amplify into a classic +PNA intermountain Region bubble, which would turn the steering flow at 500MB from Ontario into Georgia/South Carolina. Using the Atlantic Ocean moisture source while draining cold values off of the snow field in eastern Canada, this is one of those situations where St. Patrick's Day could go from "wearing of the green" to "worn out by excessive snow".

Colder air may stick around the eastern third or quarter of the country through Week 4. But the continued pattern seen since the start of winter, a warm West, will importa some moderation into the Eastern Seaboard before the month is over. Canada may take a much longer time to shake off its cold dome, simply because there is so much snow over our northern neighbor. If the Mexican ridge is maintained, and a semizonal flow with northern border storm track takes shape (as expected), then the only downward trends in temperature will be from showers and thunderstorms. This is MCS season in the south central states, particularly in Texas and Louisiana. Once the southern branch jet stream lifts up toward 40 N Latitude, we are likely to see a "warm to hot" thermal banding form California to the western Gulf Coast. Which I think will be the big player this summer, and should remind CAISO and ERCOT districts not to take an ascending ENSO Neutral to El Nino alignment lightly.

Heat is not that far away.

 

Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Sunday, March 8, 2026 at 3:00 A.M. CT

Disclaimer: 
The previous statements are my opinions only, and should not be construed as definitive fact. Links provided on this newsletter are not affiliated with WEATHERAmerica and the publisher is not responsible for content posted or associated with those sites.

Copyright 2026 by Larry Cosgrove

All rights reserved.
This publication may not be reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part without the expressed written consent of the author.