WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Sunday, February 8, 2026; SHORT And MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOKS

[Larry Cosgrove]

SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK

(Through The Next 72 Hours)

 

Outside Of The Northeast, It Just Keeps Getting Warmer And Warmer....

METEOBLUE

TrueWx.Com (3)

ECMWF

College Of DuPage Weather Laboratory (3)

Some have reached out to me proclaiming that the "blowtorch" is coming to the East Coast in the near term. While much of the western and central USA will see very mild/warm values in the near term, there is the not-small issue of secondary cold fronts from Manitoba and Ontario dropping through the Great Lakes into New England and the Mid-Atlantic. Temperatures along the northwest flow scenario will stay colder than normal with few breaks. Note the second front into MN and ON at 72 hours. Snow will be a relatively minor consideration. But chances for sleet and freezing rain may become an issue for the upper Mississippi Valley and later in parts of New York and Pennsylvania.

Cold values will be settling through the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain Region, so snow will start to increase in some of the higher elevations as far south as the High Sierra of CA. But for many further south the "fresh breath of Spring" will ease the nerves of many tired of the brushes with winter weather. But perhaps those individuals should use the time to get ready for the next visit of winter in the longer term!

 

MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK

(Four To Ten Days From Now)

 

Western States, Canada See Colder Temperatures And Increased Precipitation Chances; Risk Of Nor'Easter Increases

METEOBLUE

PivotalWeather.Com (4)

UQAM Meteocentre (4)

College Of DuPage Weather Laboratory (3)

It might be easy to suggest some colder air and precipitation in the West, given the position of the Gulf of Alaska vortex, its wave-laden cold front, and southern branch jet stream with moisture advection lining up along the West Coast. Most of the numerical model QPF suggestions will allow for snow all the way into Baja California Norte by February 16. Arctic air from far northern Canada is drawn south into the trough complex as 500MB heights rise in Alaska. All of this occurs while the south central and Gulf Coast states are basking in unusually warm readings tied to the weakening, but still present, Southeast ridge complex centered over the southern Florida Peninsula.

Consider, however, that the formative trough complex should eject a shortwave out of New Mexico/Colorado into the lower Mid-Atlantic region at the start of this time frame. The Arctic air that spreads over Canada may either break off, or steadily advance through the Midwest and Northeast. The set-up that I envision is that the cA/mT frontal structure reaches a line from near Liberal KS to Norfolk VA by February 14. Rain and thunderstorms could activate in the Ozark Plateau and Mid-South. The frontal low moves from near Trinidad CO to Nashville TN, then on to Ocean City MD and then into a deepening phase past the MA Islands into Nova Scotia by the end of the period. Precipitation type may be mostly frozen along and to the left of the fabled Interstate 95 corridor (I think the GGEM scenario may be the best solution, dragging some snow all the way to the Atlantic shoreline after a start as rain. Wind and cold are important considerations given the depth of the system (987MB by 216 hours). This system effectively puts a stop to the moderation that tries to advance out of Texas and the lower Great Plains. 

And could be a start point for some very challenging winter weather in the USA in the second half of February into early March,