WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, February 15, 2025; SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK

[Larry Cosgrove]

SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK

(Through The Next 72 Hours)

 

The "Bombs Away" Storm Sequence Starts Now....

METEOBLUE

UQAM Meteocentre (3)

University Of Wisconsin Weather Server (3)

TwisterData.Com (3)

College Of DuPage Weather Laboratory (3)

In forecast discussions over the past two weeks, I have emphasized that the evolving weather pattern would feature both cold and a vigorous storm sequence. The first impulse in this series is very deep, on a path that will take the center of lowest pressure through central Pennsylvania and on into Maine/New Brunswick on early Monday morning. Severe weather chances are possible from the Mid-South into Virginia and the Carolinas. Moisture advection and instability will allow for generous convective rainfall in the warm sector before the cold front passes the Atlantic coastline. High winds, moderate/heavy snow and even some important ice accumulations (middle and upper Appalachia) will create power and transportation headaches in the much colder air mass pushing out of the Great Plains and Midwest. But ultimately the biggest contribution this system will have is the laying down of a front through Texas and the Deep South,

That frontal structure will start to ease back north as another storm in California digs southeast into Texas, coming to rest near Galveston TX early on Wednesday morning. Then the question arises: does this incoming feature present a chance for a serious snowfall in the Dixie states and Eastern Seaboard?

....And Continues By Midweek With Bitter Cold And A Possible "Miller A" Coastal Cyclone!

METEOBLUE

Pivotal Weather (3)

ECMWF 

Earlier numerical models have been steadfast on predicting a "Miller A" type of storm that rides along the shorelines of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. Since a cAk vortex may phase with the disturbance, the argument can be made for a heavy ice and snow event across parts of Oklahoma and Texas and Dixie, on into the Mid-Atlantic and New England states. But the 0z runs have been a bit weaker and further east with the path 0f the surface low, and indicate the possibility that the 500MB motherlode motherlode does not fully phase with the shoreline system. I think that those living between Interstate 20 and 40 have a chance at a memorable winter storm. But the odds on the frozen precipitation reaching the Interstate 95 corridor above Richmond VA are at best 50-50, and we will likely not know the probable outcome of this event until the 12z Monday NWP outlooks.