TODAY'S FUN LINKS: | | NASA - 14 March 2024Hubble monitors Jupiter and the other outer solar system planets every year under the Outer Planet Atmospheres Legacy program (OPAL), and images taken on January 5-6, 2024 capture storm activity on both sides of the planet. |
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| | News Center Maine - 17 March 2024 With help from the AMS Glossary of Meteorology, here's how to tell the difference between the two. |
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| | The Pennsylvania State University - 21 March 2024A new technique could improve forecasts—including where the most powerful winds will occur—for some severe weather events. |
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| | Florida State University - 13 March 2024 The new study used geographic information systems software to combine variables and determine where populations are likely to have the resources to be more resilient and where storms will be more disruptive. |
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WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Large Hail, Microbursts, Isolated Tornadoes)
S CA....S NV....AZ
Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits
N, C MO....C IL....C IN
STRONG WINDS
(Pressure Gradient Derived)
NE
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
Isolated Locations In
S CA....NV....AZ....UT....S ID....N, W WY....W CO....NW NM
(QPF 1 - 3")
Isolated Locations In
C MO....C IL....C IN
(QPF 1 - 2")
WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL
(potential for Moderate Icing, Snow 2 - 4" or more, and/or temperatures below 10 deg F)
Scattered Locations In
N, C MB....NW ON
(Intense Cold)
Isolated Locations In
N, C QC
(Snow; In Squalls; 4 - 8")
(a review of important weather features around the world)
IODC
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
Slowly heating up. With a constant procession of thunderstorm threats from Egypt/Cyprus/Turkey through the Levant, Persia, and Indus Valley.
Watch carefully how the 500MB and 850MB temperature array shift ever so gradually northward between now and April 9. I have emphasized a gradual process in returning hot weather, and I think it will be mid-May before the progressive convection pattern shifts into the Caucasus and the Central Asian Republics. Intense, well-defined upper shortwaves ride along the boundary between cT/mT and cP air masses. This is a formula for widespread excessive precipitation even in the Arabian Peninsula, with the infamous "Out of Africa" moisture fetch giving the Middle East, Iran and Pakistan chances for large hail, tornadoes and of course flooding rainfall. I suspect that the worst concentration of extreme weather will be in the Tigris/Euphrates watershed into the Zagros/Alborz depression. As earlier stated, it will be a while before the harsh sun fully takes over above 30 N Latitude. Those living in the Sudan and central/southern India will feel the first round of intense heat as rain becomes ever-scarcer this week and next.
HIMAWARI 8
Kochi University
The dessicated signature of the Madden-Julian Oscillation is over Phases 2 and 6/7/8. Incoherent MJO signatures are common in Spring, especially during El Nino to La Nina transitions. Also note the vigorous storms embedded in the polar westerlies over eastern Asia, and across the Pacific Basin. This evolving pattern strongly favors multiple severe weather outbreaks in the lower 48 states, with cooler air staying in China, Mongolia and Russia.
Even without a prominent tropical cyclone threat, Australia has impressive thunderstorm formation over its eastern sectors, set up by a link between a frontal structure and the ITCZ. Note the approach of yet another cold front entering the southwest corner of the subcontinent.
GOES WEST
NOAA/NESDIS
The textbook image of a sprawling storm approaching California, with a well-defined connection to the subtropical jet stream headed toward Mexico, warns the viewer of impending severe weather and heavy rain across the Southwest, and likely the Corn Belt in the near future. Note also the prominent (larger) storm and frontal structure over and below the Aleutian Islands, which will play a prominent role in both the potential solar eclipse views on April 8 and increased severe weather potential in the USA in the medium range.
GOES EAST
NOAA/NESDIS
The dual jet stream array approaching the West Coast will draw in some hot air from Mexico, which may get the 90 deg F isotherm as far north as the Interstate 20 corridor in early week. The parent trough will quickly boot out any residual cold air across Quebec and the Northeast. The wide space of fair skies between the two disturbances will allow for significant warming from the Great Plains to the Eastern Seaboard below 40 N Latitude.
While lacking any organized storms and fronts. South America has abundant diurnal convection, as the atmosphere there is still in a summer mode.The cold air is limited to southernmost Chile and Argentina.
METEOSAT
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
The progressive, but shortwave-laden polar jet stream is moving fairly evenly across Europe and into Asia. But segregation of the shortwaves in a split flow will take energy and surface convergence into the Balkan Peninsula and Asia Minor. This is really not a hot or cold orientation across the subcontinent, or for that matter the British Isles and Scandinavia. Rather I use the word mild, punctuated by the occasional cold front with showers and thunderstorms.
You can see the connection of the tropical moisture along the Equator (Nile Headwaters/Horn Of Africa) to the disturbance sequence encroaching on the Middle East. Widespread diurnal convection in central and southern African nations may be a sign of the impending La Nina. But there is no definition of the ITCZ here, with most of the continent hot with no cooling across the central section due to rainfall.
