WEATHERAmerica Newsletter; Saturday, February 21, 2026; MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK

[Larry Cosgrove]

MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK

(Four To Ten Days From Now)

Another Arctic Vortex Is On The Way!

METEOBLUE

TrueWx.Com (4)

WeatherBELL (4)

College Of DuPage Weather Laboratory (3)

ECMWF

Probably the last thing anyone in the lower 48 states wants to see is another intrusion of Arctic air, accompanied by freezing rain, sleet, and snow. But I think that the ECMWF series has the right idea, taking a cAk vortex along the Siberian shoreline across the North Pole next weekend, and into the Prairie Provinces and western Ontario by March 3. The actual frontal structure is forecast to reach South Texas and central Florida on March 3. Then we face the issue of frontal waves being followed by a closed 500MB low from California moving along the boundary. So what starts out as a fairly warm-looking sequence ends up being quite wintry, helped by -EPO styled ridging that shoots up between the advancing Gulf of Alaska gyre and the sub-Aleutian mAk motherlode. While this very cold configuration looks impressive (and is) keep in mind that rising sun angle and the shift from La Nina to El Nino will force a return to a milder pattern nationally in the second week of March.