WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, March 30, 2024; SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK

[Larry Cosgrove]

SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK

(Through The Next 72 Hours)

 

The Return Of Heat And Humidity To Forecasts In The South Central And Southeast States....

METEOBLUE

PivotalWeather.Com (3)

ECMWF

Note the strong outline of warmer weather, bordering on "hot", from Texas through the Dixie states. The closed low across the West will have polar air associated with its circulation, but with almost no imprint on lower elevations. There is a dwindling pool of Arctic air over Nunavut AR and Hudson Bay, but recent numerical model runs seem hesitant to displace this regime into the Northeast. Initially, the disturbance will be stretched in a positive-tilt manner, which implies that most cooling will retrogress into the Sonoran Desert before heading into Texas. But further deepening of the cyclonic circulation may enable a cool two or three day period in late week involving the New England and Mid-Atlantic states..

....While Western U.S. Storm Complex With Cold Pocket Is Likely To Create Issues On Its Motion Further East

METEOBLUE

WEATHERAmerica

TwisterData.Com (3)

University Of Wisconsin Weather Server (3)

UQAM Meteocentre (3)

College OfDuPage Weather Laboratory (2)

While there is an expansive storm enveloping the West, take note that colder air is only present with the higher elevations. This system will ultimately be known for its diversity. Heavy snow will plague much of the Intermountain Region, but fade in the milder climes of the Great Plains and Midwest. The high sun angle will limit or prevent the cold sector from producing any meaningful accumulations in daylight. But if the low pressure can drain the Hudson Bay cold pool southward, there may be respectable snow rates in the lower Great Lakes, upper Appalachia and St. Lawrence Valley as the system regroups over the Northeast on Tuesday night. The center of low pressure may be inland or directly along the New England shoreline, which would argue against any important accumulations along the upper end of the Interstate 95 corridor on Wednesday as the center of the system moves into Nova Scotia.

Since the storm will be flattening the strong heat ridge over the Strait Of Yucatan, the conflict of polar and tropical air mass types may trigger severe thunderstorms in a bracket form KS, OK, and TX, then through the Ohio, Tennessee, and James River watersheds. I think that scenario is something we will be seeing well into May, with attendant risks for hail, heavy rainfall and even tornadoes. Brief cooling will be felt in the wake of this feature, but Florida should largely escape any drop in temperature.