WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, June 3, 2023 at 11:15 P.M. CT; Medium Range Forecast

[Larry Cosgrove]

MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK

(Four To Ten Days From Now)

 

Two Cold Frontal Passages East Of The Rocky Mountains (And Above Interstate 20)

ECMWF (4)

PivotalWeather.Com (4)

The slow-to-move upper low in the Maritime Provinces will be responsible for two shortwave-associated cold frontal passages that rotate around the back side of the circulation. This continues the trend of mild-to-cool values across the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as adjacent sections of Canada. Notice that the polar regime never reaches the south central and Gulf Coast states, which will be near enough to a heat ridge as to allow for some truly bothersome heat and humidity to set up. Thunderstorms, however, may get in the way of rapid daily warmings from sections of the Intermountain Region into Oklahoma, Texas, and Louisiana.

Signs Of Heat Build-Up From Mexico To Texas?




UQAM Meteocentre (4)

TwisterData.Com (4)

TrueWx.Com (4)

College Of DuPage Weather Laboratory

There are subtle hints on upper air and surface temperature maps that a "bubble heat ridge", somewhat similar to that of the summer of 2009, will take shape across Texas and the adjacent Gulf Coast. But the numerical model evidence for this feature is somewhat inconsistent bth in time of formation and place for development. I tend to believe the GFS and GGEM series which show the ridge complex shifting up out of Mexico by June 13, and becoming a key player in regional and national weather after mid-month. But further north, slightly cooler than average readings, aided by thunderstorm formation, will hang on a while longer.