WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Sunday, January 11, 2026; SHORT And MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK

[Larry Cosgrove]

SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK

(Through The Next 72 Hours)

 

Despite Brief Cold Intrusion Into the Midwest, Great Lakes, And The Northeast, Warmth Will Rebuild From The High Plains To The East Coast

METEOBLUE

PivotalWeather.Com (3)

WeatherBell.Com

College Of DuPage Weather Laboratory (3)

The -EPO styled ridge off of the West Coast and the storm complex to the west of Baja California represent another dent in the January Thaw.

Even though the numerical models have struggled with the southern branch, climatology suggests that a stronger system like what we are seeing now, with a deep moisture fetch, could help to pull the Arctic regime over Canada and the Great Lakes/Northeast further south. There will be early-week recovery in temperature across the Great Plains, Texas, and the Deep South. But notice the snow and sleet potential in northern Mexico; the forecast idea is that the subtropical jet stream will carry in a cold pocket aloft, with enough energy to pull down the cAk values further north. It is not inconceivable that the two branches phase, which is why the model predictions at 144 and 168 hours here show a deep, cold full-latitude trough along and just west of the Mississippi River and the Great Lakes.

Snow squalls and wind, with a cold pocket, could make for a very troubling day on Sunday through the Great Lakes and Appalachia into New England.

 

MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK

(Four To Ten Days From Now)

 

And Then....Goodbye To The January Thaw!

METEOBLUE

PivotalWeather.Com (4)

UQAM Meteocentre (4)

College Of DuPage Weather Laboratory (3)

It would be tempting after a warm spell in the first ten days of January over the West and South to bring up those infamous cries of "WINTER CANCEL" that you come across on Twitter and Facebook. The problem is that periods of moderation are normal for the month, sandwiched in between cold at the start of the year and an Arctic intrusion that usually returns after January 20. There are many cases in the last week or so of this month that even more bitter cold air will emerge , accompanied by a large winter storm with wind, snow, and ice potential. I think that may happen in the longer term forecast. But the 6-10 day range should see another influence from the north, the vast and deep snow and ice cover across the far northern USA and in Canada, which of course is a natural refrigerant for air masses lying near and below a blocking ridge, in this case likely to form across the Davis Strait. There probably will be a southward drift action 8 or 9 days from now, where wave cyclogenesis in Colorado tracks toward and off of the Virginia Capes. Snow and sleet are possible from the Mid-South into Appalachia and the Northeast. I emphasize that if there is going to be a genuine major snow event, most likely it would be affecting more locations further south and following up along the Eastern Seaboard. And should that occur, best odds would be January 23 - 31.

We have a long time to go before spring gets here. Remember that please. That storm complex over the northern Pacific Basin will have a say in weather over the lower 48 states.