WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Sunday, January 25, 2026; EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST

[Larry Cosgrove]

EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST

(Between Day 11 And Day 15)

 

Dual Blocking Configuration Suggests Mostly Mild, Dry West Vs. Cold, Stormy East

NOHRSC (2)

CIMSS (2)

TropicalTidbits.Com (Dr. Levi Cowan) (3)

NOAA/PMEL

NOAA/CPC

IRI/Columbia University

HPRCC/University Of Nebraska (2)

Environment Canada

WeatherBELL (8)

We have seen an expansion of the already hefty snow and ice display across Eurasia, the Arctic Ocean into North America. I suspect that we will have an active February, with more snow and ice events between the Rocky Mountains and East Coast. Model guidance is fairly solid on the concept of a +PNA/-AO/-NAO 500MB configuration with ridge linkage set up to consolidate a bitter cold vortex over Ontario and Quebec. Occasionally this gyre may reform or move down into Michigan and the Northeast USA.

The subtropical jet stream must be watched, since the ENSO character will go from its current weak La Nina status toward an El Nino episode this coming summer. This process is gradual. One of the ways you can see the chance is by watching that lower latitude branch strengthen (connection to the Madden-Julian Oscillation) and inch gradually northward as we move through February into March, It is possible, maybe even likely, that two or three important winter storms involve the southern and eastern tiers of the USA into Atlantic Canada as we transition to spring. Next weekend, there may be a phased cAk/cP/mT event off of the shoreline of the Mid-Atlantic and New England.

I have put up some upper air and surface temperature maps that carry us into late February, indicating recurring cAk motherlodes around Ontario, the Great Lakes and Midwest, along with the chance for storm reformation off of the Atlantic shoreline. Of course winter cannot go on forever, and the shifting jet stream I alluded to may climb to the Mexican border and Gulf Coast. This is why analogs for March are considerably warmer after the first week of that month. But until that time arrives, continue to think warm West vs. cold and stormy Central, East alignment.

 

Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Sunday, January 25, 2026 at 3:25 A.M. CT

Disclaimer: 
The previous statements are my opinions only, and should not be construed as definitive fact. Links provided on this newsletter are not affiliated with WEATHERAmerica and the publisher is not responsible for content posted or associated with those sites.

Copyright 2026 by Larry Cosgrove

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