WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, January 17, 2026; SHORT RANGE and MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOKS

[Larry Cosgrove]

SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK

(Through The Next 72 Hours)

 

Cold East Vs. Warm West Alignment Settles In

METEOBLUE

PivotalWeather.Com (3)

College Of DuPage Weather Laboratory (3)

ECMWF

While all of the numerical models show a vast display of Arctic air, most are reluctant to advance the cAk regime into Mexico and the Gulf Coast. Hence temperatures are still near normal along the Interstate 10 corridor, this despite freezing air in abundance along and north of the Interstate 20 cities from Dallas TX to Columbia SC. There appears to be some chance of a southern branch disturbance moving close to central Texas and the Florida panhandle, which would pull the colder readings further south. Remember also the snow is likely from the Florida Panhandle to the Hampton Roads VA vicinity and into New Jersey, a sign that the colder air mass has already (in a sense) broken through. The only truly mild/warm regions will be the Pacific shoreline and the lower FL Peninsula. The presence of a motherlode centered over James Bay in synoptic climatology usually argues for solid cold values east of the Rocky Mountains.

 

MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK

(Four To Ten Days From Now)

 

Major Winter Storm Threat Arises With Potential Southern, Eastern USA Snow And Ice

METEOBLUE

PivotalWeather.Com (4)

UQAM Meteocentre (4)

College Of DuPage Weather Laboratory (3)

There is no 100 percent certainty of a heavy winter storm in the 6-10 day range which is probably why most of the schemes are reluctant to bring the freeze line to the Gulf Coast. I suspect that this scenario is wrong, simply because of the active subtropical jet stream and since there will be so much snow cover across Canada and the northern tier that the cAk regime overhead must push out any lingering warmer air. But I am confident that later model runs will produce a significant "Miller A" low pressure that crosses the neck of Florida and then turns up along the East Coast, thus opening up drainage of bitter cold into a mild/warm and dry West vs. a cold Central, East alignment.