WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 11:15 P.M. CT; Medium Range Forecast

[Larry Cosgrove]

MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK

(Four To Ten Days From Now)

One Last Cold Frontal Passage in The Northeast?

ECMWF (4)

PivotalWeather.Com (4)

There are two ways to look at the chance for a backdoor cold front into the Northeast early in the medium range (following the storm now approaching West Texas). One is that the intrusion can't be as aggravating as the night freeze in Appalachia and the northern Interstate 95 cities the other day. The second issue is that the first solid case for +100 deg F weather will emerge in Texas and Oklahoma next weekend (and likely beyond). The flat heat ridge covering Mexico and the Greater Antilles will edge northward in to the Lone Star State on Saturday, pulled up by another oncoming storm and frontal structure that originates in the Gulf of Alaska. This regime will be quite dry, and serve as a future origin point for heat waves in the Great Plains during the second half of May.

Major Severe Weather Threat Emerges For Texas, Great Plains After May 7!

UQAM Meteocentre (4)

TwisterData.Com (4)

TrueWx.Com (4)

College Of DuPage Weather Laboratory (2)

A storm now below the Aleutian Islands has a chance to have a major impact on the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. in the medium range. Virtually all forecast guidance takes this feature through the Intermountain Region into western Kansas , then builds the associated trough south and east toward Texas and the Mississippi Valley May 7 - 9. With a great deal of moisture and instability to work with, energy moving along the trough will likely collapse the previous capped atmosphere. This system has the marking of a textbook severe weather outbreak. At the same time, higher elevations in the West may see the last serious snowfall until next autumn.