WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, NEXT 6-10 Day OUTLOOK; Saturday, January 25, 2025

[Larry Cosgrove]

NEXT 6-10 DAYS OUTLOOK

 

There are reminders of Spring in this forecast. After all, the blanket of intense cold (we have seen worse, for sure, but it was still impressive...) is lifting out. Helped by a large but somewhat chaotic 500MB trough developing in the western half of the continent, southwest flow aloft to the left of a Sargasso Sea/Greater Antilles heat ridge will erase the cold below Interstate 80 and to the right of the High Plains. There is a good chance for needed rain and thunderstorms in California and Nevada with a cutoff low, while a small impulse may bring intense convection and heavy rainfall to Texas and Louisiana.

Cold air is rebuilding in Canada, however, and a shortwave dropping southeast from Manitoba into New England could bring the chill to the Great Lakes and Northeast at midweek. An impressive wind and snow event in Ontario and Quebec may initiate some lake-effect squalls to the prone leeshore snow belts in MI, IN, OH, PA, and NY. The main influence in that case is that the warmth further south will not be able to fully erase the cAk regime.

There is some disagreement about the emergence of the vast cold upper low that is forming over the Intermountain Region. Typically, the "coming out" process described by NWS materials written on the topic of ejecting energy in the Southwest always mentions a shortwave dropping southeast from the Gulf of Alaska. If a ridge builds into Alaska, then cold air drainage will wipe out the warmth in the central and eastern chambers of the nation. I think that could happen around February 7 or so, but the faster pace shown by the operational ECMWF scheme may yet prove to be correct. If so, we could see a major snow and wind event in the High Plains and Missouri valley, concurrent with another unseasonable bout with severe weather from TX and OK through the Dixie states as we move closer to or in the second week of February.

METEOBLUE (2)

University Of Wisconsin Weather Laboratory

TwisterData.Com

UQAM Meteocentre (4)

ECMWF (5)

College Of DuPage Weather Laboratory (2)