China Economic Recession and Supply Disruptions

[Joe Leote]

Why Beijing Will Be Unable to Stop Its Economy from Crashing

https://youtu.be/ND6VyuWKvrQ

Thirteen minutes analysis of China economic problems, monetary policies, and patterns of international trade.

Joe

[WilliamM]

I agree completely.  Question is would They weaponize the timing of the downturn to cause maximum damage to the west.  Now perhaps?  Also, will they liquidate their us holdings including stocks and property to pay off dollar denominated debt causing even further damage?

[Joe Leote]

I think China wants to grow its economy as rapidly as possible and win against the West, led by the United States, in a new high technology race called The Fourth Industrial Revolution. In that case it would not make sense for China to weaponize its holding of Treasuries at this time. As far as I can tell, from a few recent media reports, the Chinese economy has many structural problems with too many assets built with too much debt and not enough cash flow to repay the debt. Also China is graduating educated workers who can't find suitable jobs. Also China must increase wages to workers to stimulate domestic consumption. Also covid lockdown policy is closing production which would cause stagflation combined with fiscal and monetary stimulus.

Joe

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