Fiscal Dominance and Industrial Policy Competition

[Joe Leote]

Theory of "Inflation Taxation" via Fiscal Dominance :

Fiscal Dominance and the Return of Zero-Interest Bank Reserve Requirements | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

The idea is that the government prints money at roughly zero interest to drive inflation which helps repay the nominal outstanding debt with inflated dollars. But then I think it will cause asset price inflation and further increase in the public and private debt to keep cash flowing and prevent systemic debt deflation. 

In theory the Fiat Sovereign government can print money to deficit spend and pay high interest rates on public debt via Interest On Excess Reserves and Treasuries and that would be Fiscal Dominance with government control of interest rates as described in the talk below.

This long talk is packed with coherent analysis and predicts Global Fiscal Dominance and Industrial Policy Competition which gives no Central Bank role for implementing interest rates via Monetary Policy:

Banking Crisis = New Rules for Investors and Financial Repression

https://youtu.be/E_zPzNhUFGM

Industrial Policy in a Great Power Competition between the United States and China would be inflationary in the United States to bring a substantial manufacturing base back to North America. The increase of domestic investment would drive savings held as public and private debt of governments and large corporations and the shift from consumption to greater investment and less consumption tends to cause inflation. On the other hand the financial system could reverse from debt-driven asset price inflation to credit and cash crunch that would be debt deflation. The federal government would bailout the real economy again but needs to learn how to allocate some of the losses to billionaires so they take a haircut on net worth. Also we built the old manufacturing base during World War 2 using high progressive tax rates and tax shelters for investments that also have some public purpose (such as building the public and private utilities infrastructure). Government in the United States is not likely to be as good at Fiscal Dominance as it was after the Great Depression and during World War 2 and the post-war transition to high GDP growth and rising middle class prosperity.

Joe

[William Meyer]

The part about possible 16 percent inflation.  But don't worry, he has an idea to get it down to 8.  Doesn't bode well.

--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Understanding Money" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to understandingmo...@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/understandingmoney/CAMpwg52vVG8VNp0m0jdqbc6KhnyGfgt%3DFA_W9xbmi1bvC93vNg%40mail.gmail.com.